The Housing Bust Begins

[legaleagle]

The Housing Bust Begins

By Eric J. Fry

 

"We've had the biggest housing boom in the history of this

country," explains Yale professor, Robert Shiller. "That

can't go on forever...I'm thinking that this boom is so

much bigger, that we will see a substantial fall that will

affect the country overall...We're not [automatically]

bound for an enormous decline, but I think it's likely."

 

Shiller aired his skeptical remarks during an interview

with Bloomberg News over the weekend. The housing boom has

been so large and all-encompassing, Shiller argued, that

the coming bust also promises to be large and all-

encompassing.

 

Helpfully, Shiller does not warn of impending disaster

without also providing a partial refuge. The Yale professor

helped to create indexes that track home values in ten

major metropolitan centers. These new indexes, dubbed the

Case-Shiller Indexes, underlie a new batch of futures

contracts that debuted three months ago on the Chicago

Mercantile Exchange (CME).

 

The new contracts reflect home prices in most of the

nation's hottest property markets, namely: Boston, Chicago,

Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York Commuter

Index, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington D.C.

 

"Why did you create these futures contracts?" the Bloomberg

interviewer asked Shiller.

 

"They're designed to allow people to adjust their exposure

to a risky market," he replied. "The total value of real

estate owned by households in the United States is $20

trillion. Bigger than the stock market. Not everyone needs

to hedge. But a lot of people should be adjusting that risk

exposure."

 

Remarkably, very few homeowners are availing themselves of

these new hedging instruments. Only $71 million worth of

housing futures are currently changing hands. "That's

peanuts by Wall Street standards," Shiller admits.

 

Furthermore, $71 million would not amount to even a single

peanut in relation to the $20 trillion of household real

estate equity. In other words, our nation of leveraged

homeowners remains completely unhedged against the prospect

of falling home prices – a prospect that seems increasingly

likely if we are to trust the newly minted Case-Shiller

futures contracts.

 

"In all 10 [futures contracts]," Shiller reports, "we have

what's called backwardation. That means that the futures

price is below the price that it is today. All of the

markets are predicting price declines. And these price

declines range from 4% to 5 1/2% by May of 2007...That's

not me talking; that's the market."

 

To help frame his bearish expectations for the housing

market, Shiller refutes the myth that residential real

estate has been a great long-term investment. "It has not

been a great investment," he says flatly.

 

Between 1890 and 2004, Shiller's book, "Irrational

Exuberance" explains, U.S. residential real estate

increased by only 66%, in real terms – that's only 0.4% per

year. By comparison, U.S. home prices soared by 52% between

1997 and 2005 – or by 6.2% a year. Since home prices have

soared so far above their long-term trendline, he reasons,

a reversion toward the mean would not be surprising.

 

"Many contend that a sustained pullback in house prices is

unthinkable," remarks James Grant, editor of Grant's

Interest Rate Observer. "But the unthinkable – or, at

least, the highly atypical – has already happened. In 2001-

2005, prices levitated."

 

Shiller agrees.

 

"So why did it happen?" The Bloomberg News interviewer

wanted to know.

 

Shiller, an economist by trade, cited no economic rationale

for the boom. Rather, he provided an explanation rooted in

the curiosities of human behavior.

 

"One of the mysteries of human society is how we interact

with each other," he said. "We are an empathic species.

When you have emotions, I see it in your face and I feel

the same emotions. That means we kind of move as herds. And

so when other people are getting excited and they are

talking about the real estate market, it gets me excited

too. You can't stay above it. If you are human, you get

drawn in. But then when the emotions start changing, you

get drawn into that too. And the emotion does seem to be

changing. It looks like we're at the beginning of a change

in psychology."

 

The recent housing data bear out his assessment.

 

Clearly, emotions are changing. The feel-good era of the

housing market is visibly yielding to the feel-less-good

era.

 

Prepare yourself.

 

Note: Whether you choose to believe in the plethora

of hard data available or the altering psychological

landscape, there is little doubting that we are in for a

fairly shocking correction in the housing market. The

question now seems more, "when?" than, "if?" Cracks, very

large, structural cracks, are already appearing across the

nation. Just take a look at what one vigilant reader

had to say yesterday about the abysmal state of the Denver

housing market:

 

Dear x,

 

I've talked with realtors and a VP of a title company,

they've confirmed the fact that the real estate boom in

Denver is definitely done. The VP said it's been flat since

the first of the year. A realtor I talked with said he knew

a guy who had 265 listings, and hadn't got a single phone

call on them.

 

Foreclosures have steadily increased as well... even with

all this, the prevailing mood seems to be that "when real

estate comes back" everything will be all right. People

seem to think it'll bounce back like tech stocks did in the

late 90s, say in 6 months to a year - if the Fed doesn't

raise rates too much farther. However, I think there are

major structural problems that'll prevent this:

 

1) Rising interest rates from the Fed,

2) Heavily indebted consumers,

3) Outsourcing of blue and white-collar jobs to Asia and

Latin America

 

Maybe the bubble is still alive on both coasts, but here in

the Denver-metro area, it's definitely popped.

 

B. Ochsner

[DaddyO]

Shiller has been saying this for the last 2yrs. Just recently, I am appreciating what he has been trying to convey.

 

Check out this link below. I first looked at this home back in May when it was originally listed for $379k....check out the price now and there are many like this that have dropped in pricing:

 

 

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListin...mp;lnksrc=00002

[alent1234]

whatever side of the bubble debate you are on, we aren't going to see if there is a bubble or not until next year. Probably around April at the earliest.

 

i've been reading about shiller for years now. just like paul krugman, has he made any predictions that turned out true?

 

the supposed price drops now are just homes selling for less than original asking which was too high to begin with. some markets had single digit drops, but nothing like a bursting bubble yet.

Edited August 22, 2006 by alent1234

[jemison303]

What is the date of this article? Did I miss it?

 

DaddyO, my husband and I had been househunting this summer (we are in the Baltimore area). Price drops like the ones you linked to, and worse, are becoming more and more common. We are sitting tight and continuing to rent to see what this market does. Just not willing to "catch a falling knife", as the saying goes.

[DaddyO]

What is the date of this article? Did I miss it?

 

DaddyO, my husband and I had been househunting this summer (we are in the Baltimore area). Price drops like the ones you linked to, and worse, are becoming more and more common. We are sitting tight and continuing to rent to see what this market does. Just not willing to "catch a falling knife", as the saying goes.

 

 

It's confusing.....

 

 

 

It’s getting a little difficult to gauge around here in the NJ/NY area. My sister moved to the DC area 2 months ago. Took a job at Fannie Mae. Looking for a home in the North Va area now. She put her house up for sale (Bergen County, NJ) and has had no interest at $449k. What is ironic is that the home next door (same type home) sold for $490k late last year….and a few doors down…another home sold for $52k last summer. She has worked out a deal with the realtor to keep it at the same price but the commission is now reduced to 3%.

 

 

 

Check out this clip on Toll Bros earlier today....

 

 

 

 

Tuesday August 22, 11:59 am ET

By Deborah Yao, AP Business Writer

Toll Brothers 3Q Profit Falls 19 Percent, Revenue Down 1 Percent; Shares Up

 

 

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday its third-quarter profits fell by 19 percent as the housing-market malaise weighed on sales and caused the company to abandon some building locations.

[DaddyO]

whatever side of the bubble debate you are on, we aren't going to see if there is a bubble or not until next year. Probably around April at the earliest.

 

i've been reading about shiller for years now. just like paul krugman, has he made any predictions that turned out true?

 

the supposed price drops now are just homes selling for less than original asking which was too high to begin with. some markets had single digit drops, but nothing like a bursting bubble yet.

 

 

 

I like the term "Housing Correction" and not "Housing Bubble"

[ouray]

I have seen the RE market catatonic state in CA from 94-98 were homeowners moved out at night b/c their mortgage was higher than the dropping value of their houses. I've always maintained that what goes up must come down and w/ the insane increase of house prices in the last 5 yrs it's only a matter of time for a similar magnitude downward correction to take place.

 

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

Edited August 22, 2006 by ouray

[jemison303]

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

 

Good, I'm glad DH and I aren't the only ones! Family members have flat-out told us we're crazy to wait because we won't be able to afford anything in a year or two.

 

I don't have a lot of knowledge or sophistication when it comes to real estate or economics, but based on a lot of things that I have seen with my own eyes, I think that things are cooling off.

[alent1234]

What is the date of this article? Did I miss it?

 

DaddyO, my husband and I had been househunting this summer (we are in the Baltimore area). Price drops like the ones you linked to, and worse, are becoming more and more common. We are sitting tight and continuing to rent to see what this market does. Just not willing to "catch a falling knife", as the saying goes.

 

 

It's confusing.....

 

 

 

It’s getting a little difficult to gauge around here in the NJ/NY area. My sister moved to the DC area 2 months ago. Took a job at Fannie Mae. Looking for a home in the North Va area now. She put her house up for sale (Bergen County, NJ) and has had no interest at $449k. What is ironic is that the home next door (same type home) sold for $490k late last year….and a few doors down…another home sold for $52k last summer. She has worked out a deal with the realtor to keep it at the same price but the commission is now reduced to 3%.

 

 

 

Check out this clip on Toll Bros earlier today....

 

 

 

 

Tuesday August 22, 11:59 am ET

By Deborah Yao, AP Business Writer

Toll Brothers 3Q Profit Falls 19 Percent, Revenue Down 1 Percent; Shares Up

 

 

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday its third-quarter profits fell by 19 percent as the housing-market malaise weighed on sales and caused the company to abandon some building locations.

 

 

my wife keeps bugging me about NJ, but the wacky property taxes scare me. A $400,000 townhome means around $6500 a year in taxes and you better plan for 10% annual increases. and we make over $100k per year together. if your sister will take $350,000 or so we might have a deal.

[alent1234]

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

 

Good, I'm glad DH and I aren't the only ones! Family members have flat-out told us we're crazy to wait because we won't be able to afford anything in a year or two.

 

I don't have a lot of knowledge or sophistication when it comes to real estate or economics, but based on a lot of things that I have seen with my own eyes, I think that things are cooling off.

 

 

they said the same thing about tech stocks

 

how are prices going to stay up if no one can afford to buy a home?

[DaddyO]

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

 

Good, I'm glad DH and I aren't the only ones! Family members have flat-out told us we're crazy to wait because we won't be able to afford anything in a year or two.

 

I don't have a lot of knowledge or sophistication when it comes to real estate or economics, but based on a lot of things that I have seen with my own eyes, I think that things are cooling off.

 

 

 

IMO good common sense always out weighs any econometric / actuarial calculation. Impossible to time the top or bottom....but if you see prices increasing or dropping......you may want to see what is going on rather than getting emotional and jumping in.

[DaddyO]

What is the date of this article? Did I miss it?

 

DaddyO, my husband and I had been househunting this summer (we are in the Baltimore area). Price drops like the ones you linked to, and worse, are becoming more and more common. We are sitting tight and continuing to rent to see what this market does. Just not willing to "catch a falling knife", as the saying goes.

 

 

It's confusing.....

 

 

 

It’s getting a little difficult to gauge around here in the NJ/NY area. My sister moved to the DC area 2 months ago. Took a job at Fannie Mae. Looking for a home in the North Va area now. She put her house up for sale (Bergen County, NJ) and has had no interest at $449k. What is ironic is that the home next door (same type home) sold for $490k late last year….and a few doors down…another home sold for $52k last summer. She has worked out a deal with the realtor to keep it at the same price but the commission is now reduced to 3%.

 

 

 

Check out this clip on Toll Bros earlier today....

 

 

 

 

Tuesday August 22, 11:59 am ET

By Deborah Yao, AP Business Writer

Toll Brothers 3Q Profit Falls 19 Percent, Revenue Down 1 Percent; Shares Up

 

 

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday its third-quarter profits fell by 19 percent as the housing-market malaise weighed on sales and caused the company to abandon some building locations.

 

 

my wife keeps bugging me about NJ, but the wacky property taxes scare me. A $400,000 townhome means around $6500 a year in taxes and you better plan for 10% annual increases. and we make over $100k per year together. if your sister will take $350,000 or so we might have a deal.

 

 

 

LOLOL

 

If my sister will take $350k...i would jump on it too....LOLOL

 

She purchased the home in 2000 for $208k.

 

Check out Passaic County too. I like the West Milford area.

 

 

Not sure how long she will hold out....she has told me she would also consider renting for $2500.

 

With respect to the taxes.......you are on point with the $6500. I see the range is betwen $6500 - $7000 on average. Contingent on the city....you can expect to pay $1.65 - $1.75 per $100 of the value. So if the home is valued at $400,000 ....you will expect to pay at least: $4000 x $1.65 = $6600 in property taxes.

Edited August 22, 2006 by DaddyO

[alent1234]

my in-law bought a home in NYC at the peak in 1989. today it's worth more than twice as much as what they paid. if you want a home then buy something you can afford with a 30 or 15 year fixed loan. don't play the wacky financing game. this probably works for the NYC area.

 

if you live where they are building like crazy and there is still plenty of land, then be very sure you want to live in this home for at least 10 years and make sure the location is top notch. imagine it in 10 years and make sure it will be close to the center of things for it to hold value.

[Deby]

I have seen the RE market catatonic state in CA from 94-98 were homeowners moved out at night b/c their mortgage was higher than the dropping value of their houses. I've always maintained that what goes up must come down and w/ the insane increase of house prices in the last 5 yrs it's only a matter of time for a similar magnitude downward correction to take place.

 

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

 

 

I agree, I am seeing forclosure listings daily now. I think the price increase were fine until they were getting to a point that the average family could not afford the payment. Even if we could afford the 2k payment I dont want to pay that much. Here in AZ we are having price reductions but, the reductions are not near the amount of the last 2 year increases.

I feel bad for those that took out equity loans with ARMS to buy themselves luxury items like new cars and all, but now see the pinch of their payments rising and with things like Fuel, utilities and increased property taxes I am sure this is putting people over the top.

People who got into debt up to their eyeballs to get a home I think will be in big trouble. I was told a year ago the thing to get into was rentals, while the rental market was down at the time it was for seen that with all the up and coming forclosures people will need some where to live.

 

For home builders well while materials have gone up some, I can assure you they did not pay their labor more. Unless the home builders over bought and did plan properly they are making a hell of a profit. I know we own land that we did get cheap, but doing the break down to build our own home based of 4 homes per acre we could build a custom (not huge) but not small home for about 140,000 at the most if we hired all the labor out.

Right now today that same house is selling for about 315,000. That is about 175 k profit but I am not including impact fee's and or other fee's. Talking to the construction workers out here they say for builders, every 3rd house built is pure profit. I am still getting letters on a monthly basis from someone wanting to buy our land .

 

 

Deby

[alent1234]

What is the date of this article? Did I miss it?

 

DaddyO, my husband and I had been househunting this summer (we are in the Baltimore area). Price drops like the ones you linked to, and worse, are becoming more and more common. We are sitting tight and continuing to rent to see what this market does. Just not willing to "catch a falling knife", as the saying goes.

 

 

It's confusing.....

 

 

 

It’s getting a little difficult to gauge around here in the NJ/NY area. My sister moved to the DC area 2 months ago. Took a job at Fannie Mae. Looking for a home in the North Va area now. She put her house up for sale (Bergen County, NJ) and has had no interest at $449k. What is ironic is that the home next door (same type home) sold for $490k late last year….and a few doors down…another home sold for $52k last summer. She has worked out a deal with the realtor to keep it at the same price but the commission is now reduced to 3%.

 

 

 

Check out this clip on Toll Bros earlier today....

 

 

 

 

Tuesday August 22, 11:59 am ET

By Deborah Yao, AP Business Writer

Toll Brothers 3Q Profit Falls 19 Percent, Revenue Down 1 Percent; Shares Up

 

 

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday its third-quarter profits fell by 19 percent as the housing-market malaise weighed on sales and caused the company to abandon some building locations.

 

 

my wife keeps bugging me about NJ, but the wacky property taxes scare me. A $400,000 townhome means around $6500 a year in taxes and you better plan for 10% annual increases. and we make over $100k per year together. if your sister will take $350,000 or so we might have a deal.

 

 

 

LOLOL

 

If my sister will take $350k...i would jump on it too....LOLOL

 

She purchased the home in 2000 for $208k.

 

 

Not sure how long she will hold out....she has told me she would also consider renting for $2500.

 

With respect to the taxes.......you are on point with the $6500. I see the range is betwen $6500 - $7000 on average. Contingent on the city....you can expect to pay $1.65 - $1.75 per $100 of the value. So if the home is valued at $400,000 ....you will expect to pay at least: $4000 x $1.65 = $6600 in property taxes.

 

 

At $350,000 i will probably put around $100,000 down and my payment at 6.2% plus taxes plus other should be close to $2500 which is at the top of my range for housing. If my wife or I work in NYC that's another $300 for trains per person. add in a car or two, food and child expenses and there goes that $120,000 salary.

[Honeyb2fly]

I have seen the RE market catatonic state in CA from 94-98 were homeowners moved out at night b/c their mortgage was higher than the dropping value of their houses. I've always maintained that what goes up must come down and w/ the insane increase of house prices in the last 5 yrs it's only a matter of time for a similar magnitude downward correction to take place.

 

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

 

hey ouray, are you in oklahoma?

[ouray]

I have seen the RE market catatonic state in CA from 94-98 were homeowners moved out at night b/c their mortgage was higher than the dropping value of their houses. I've always maintained that what goes up must come down and w/ the insane increase of house prices in the last 5 yrs it's only a matter of time for a similar magnitude downward correction to take place.

 

I am planning on purchasing a house but will hold back untill time is right in a year or two, there's no rush

 

hey ouray, are you in oklahoma?

 

Sorry not, I'm in Gilbert AZ

Edited August 22, 2006 by ouray

[DaddyO]

Alent,

 

 

I work in NY. Bus and Train cost me on average $210 per month. I have to drive to the Bus…so factor in another $60 - $70 per week. I have a friend that lives 25min further out and he is paying the $300 you mentioned. He found a garage in midtown that he and another friend split the cost of driving in. But when you factor in the gas, tolls and road rage….it’s not worth it to me. Cost for the monthly parking is $325.

 

I have a 2.5yr old and an 11yr that is in private school. Between daycare and private school…this is another $1600+ per month…not incl lunches and after school activities.

 

I speak with my friends that live in the South and out West and their cost of living is nothing like what we are experiencing here. Unfortunately, I am conditioned to live in this area and have no desires of moving. I have tried Marietta, Georgia and almost died since it was so freakin quiet down there. I don’t know how people live down there.

 

Again…consider Passaic Country…you can find something nice for $300 - $375k

Edited August 22, 2006 by DaddyO

[alent1234]

if wife and i ever move out from NYC, the theory is this. Find the store locations for Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Restoration Hardware, Williams and Sonoma and a few other high end stores. find a house within 45 minutes driving distance of the stores.

 

 

marietta is too crowded. if you want to look, check out the phoenix area. my guess is in 2-3 years they will be giving homes away there. Or for $200,000 you'll buy a late model 4000 sq ft monster with all the latest amenities like separate bathrooms and closets for the kids. i looked in northern colorado just out of curiosity, and all the new homes in the $400,000 range have either a shared bath or usually separate bathrooms for each bedroom with a huge master bedroom suite.

 

Take a vacation to Rocky Mountain National Park or the Grand canyon and go look at some homes just to get an idea. once you walk in and see what you can get, it will get you thinking at the very least.

Edited August 22, 2006 by alent1234

[DaddyO]

if wife and i ever move out from NYC, the theory is this. Find the store locations for Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Restoration Hardware, Williams and Sonoma and a few other high end stores. find a house within 45 minutes driving distance of the stores.

 

 

marietta is too crowded. if you want to look, check out the phoenix area. my guess is in 2-3 years they will be giving homes away there. Or for $200,000 you'll buy a late model 4000 sq ft monster with all the latest amenities like separate bathrooms and closets for the kids. i looked in northern colorado just out of curiosity, and all the new homes in the $400,000 range have either a shared bath or usually separate bathrooms for each bedroom with a huge master bedroom suite.

 

Take a vacation to Rocky Mountain National Park or the Grand canyon and go look at some homes just to get an idea. once you walk in and see what you can get, it will get you thinking at the very least.

 

 

Unfortunately I have an issue with the wildlife in certain areas. Went to Florida once and saw a snake that looked like the loch ness monster. Same deal in Marietta. They sprayed the woods near my complex once....and it was like that movie with Samuel jackson on the airplane. The snakes kept coming like there was no tomorrow......and I had no where to run my friend. They said something about a snake den, but i never knew snakes stayed in a den.

 

This is another reason why I am keeping my azz here. If i want to see animals...I will go to the Bronx Zoo.....not looking forward to any encounter in my back yard.

Edited August 22, 2006 by DaddyO

[ouray]

if wife and i ever move out from NYC, the theory is this. Find the store locations for Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Restoration Hardware, Williams and Sonoma and a few other high end stores. find a house within 45 minutes driving distance of the stores.

 

 

marietta is too crowded. if you want to look, check out the phoenix area. my guess is in 2-3 years they will be giving homes away there. Or for $200,000 you'll buy a late model 4000 sq ft monster with all the latest amenities like separate bathrooms and closets for the kids. i looked in northern colorado just out of curiosity, and all the new homes in the $400,000 range have either a shared bath or usually separate bathrooms for each bedroom with a huge master bedroom suite.

 

Take a vacation to Rocky Mountain National Park or the Grand canyon and go look at some homes just to get an idea. once you walk in and see what you can get, it will get you thinking at the very least.

 

I'd rather rent than buy a condo in Estes Park

[DallasLoanGuy]

The Housing Bust Begins

By Eric J. Fry

 

"We've had the biggest housing boom in the history of this

country," explains Yale professor, Robert Shiller. "That

can't go on forever...I'm thinking that this boom is so

much bigger, that we will see a substantial fall that will

affect the country overall...We're not [automatically]

bound for an enormous decline, but I think it's likely."

B. Ochsner

 

 

 

 

 

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!

[DaddyO]

if wife and i ever move out from NYC, the theory is this. Find the store locations for Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Restoration Hardware, Williams and Sonoma and a few other high end stores. find a house within 45 minutes driving distance of the stores.

 

 

marietta is too crowded. if you want to look, check out the phoenix area. my guess is in 2-3 years they will be giving homes away there. Or for $200,000 you'll buy a late model 4000 sq ft monster with all the latest amenities like separate bathrooms and closets for the kids. i looked in northern colorado just out of curiosity, and all the new homes in the $400,000 range have either a shared bath or usually separate bathrooms for each bedroom with a huge master bedroom suite.

 

Take a vacation to Rocky Mountain National Park or the Grand canyon and go look at some homes just to get an idea. once you walk in and see what you can get, it will get you thinking at the very least.

 

 

 

Which mortgage are you and your wife considering or are you going with the 30yr Fixed ?

[alent1234]

if wife and i ever move out from NYC, the theory is this. Find the store locations for Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Restoration Hardware, Williams and Sonoma and a few other high end stores. find a house within 45 minutes driving distance of the stores.

 

 

marietta is too crowded. if you want to look, check out the phoenix area. my guess is in 2-3 years they will be giving homes away there. Or for $200,000 you'll buy a late model 4000 sq ft monster with all the latest amenities like separate bathrooms and closets for the kids. i looked in northern colorado just out of curiosity, and all the new homes in the $400,000 range have either a shared bath or usually separate bathrooms for each bedroom with a huge master bedroom suite.

 

Take a vacation to Rocky Mountain National Park or the Grand canyon and go look at some homes just to get an idea. once you walk in and see what you can get, it will get you thinking at the very least.

 

I'd rather rent than buy a condo in Estes Park

 

technically i meant broomfield since it's close

[legaleagle]

If you asked me to define "urban sprawl" Broomfield would be near the top of my list (right behind Highlands Ranch, on the other side of Denver!!). I wouldn't want to buy anything that is defined as sprawl.

 

Maybe the sprawl is part of Denver's problem. Prices there were always significantly higher than, say, Chicago, with less of an economic base in the city to support those prices. Lots of people, without a huge economy.