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FICO Formula?


123890
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Has anyone reverse engineered the fico formula even somewhat accurately enough, to be useful? The reason I ask it that the FAKO scores are always 20 to 40 points higher than the FICO score shown by wells fargo (fico 9). Also, I see that my wells fargo fico 9 score is 20 to 30 points lower than fico 8 (discover.)

Edited by 123890
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1 hour ago, 123890 said:

Has anyone reverse engineered the fico formula even somewhat accurately enough, to be useful? The reason I ask it that the FAKO scores are always 20 to 40 points higher than the FICO score shown by wells fargo (fico 9). Also, I see that my wells fargo fico 9 score is 20 to 30 points lower than fico 8 (discover.)

@BizCredit did years ago

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4 hours ago, shifter said:

@BobWang did tons of FICO research and calculations. The spreadsheets are the most reliable predictions of various indicators available. They're reliable enough that you can take a look at someone's profile and usually guess within 10 points or so what their FICO 08 is going to be. 

 

Just making sure that you realize that all indicators are that Bob's research largely (entirely?) consisted of feeding in various responses to the FICO 4 score estimator and charting results.  Those charts were very illustrative and helpful.

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It is hard to reverse engineer almost everything.  With regards to FICO, I have a small set of CRs over a decade in an effort to look at the major factors.  This is all conjecture but I suspect that the FICO model is based somewhat on qualitative categories and once you are lumped into one that some sort of regression model is used to predict the likelihood of you defaulting on an obligation in the next 90 days.  

 

The general advice that I can give assuming that a high FICO score is a big deal to you that having 2 to 4 credit cards with limits of $10K+ over 6 years old with low utilization  along with NO derogs gives you a high probability of 750+  Other factors that could help would be a mortgage.  Auto loans don't seem to make a major impact.

 

Disclaimer: This is based on a limit sample size between 10 to 30 CR.  The numbers vary depending on the factors you are looking at.  

 

So don't draw any general conclusions such as trying to do a hypothesis test with a 95% confidence interval, etc. 

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9 hours ago, shifter said:

The estimator changed over the years. It wasn't just FICO 04.

 

I can't speak to that.  The "FICO Score Estimator" that currently can be found at myFICO.com

 

https://www.myfico.com/fico-credit-score-estimator/estimator

 

is the same FICO estimator that was in place long in advance of the introduction of FICO 8 and reflects no changes since its introduction.

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3 hours ago, shifter said:

Maybe but that doesn't mean the algorithm hasn't changed. Not to mention the score board they present at the end goes up to 850. I highly doubt they are still stuck on FICO 2/4/5.

 

The same inputs now yield the same score that those input did in 2005.  They haven't updated the estimator (not sure why that would surprise you).  Yes, they are "still stuck".

 

eta, it's not like the results are "outdated".  Mortgage scoring is still "stuck on FICO 2/4/5".

Edited by hdporter
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On 9/5/2020 at 8:22 AM, shifter said:

@BobWang did tons of FICO research and calculations. The spreadsheets are the most reliable predictions of various indicators available. They're reliable enough that you can take a look at someone's profile and usually guess within 10 points or so what their FICO 08 is going to be. 

Thanks. Got a few laughs from the other links as well.

 

Why not sue fair isaac in a class action lawsuit?

 

How do I use BobWang's spreadsheet? (Edit: nm, found this great thread : https://creditboards.com/forums/index.php?/topic/606047-newbies-intro-to-the-marvels-of-bob-wang-fico-calculators-the-master-graphs-thread-etc/ )

Edited by 123890
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12 hours ago, 123890 said:

Why not sue fair isaac in a class action lawsuit?

Perhaps because there is no basis to do so.  They have no obligation to provide proprietary information even as a publicly traded company.  The models used are based on years of data that has been subjected to statistical analysis and even the new models often won't be adopted by the major players for several years.  They have no obligation to tell you how to manipulate your score...

 

The reverse engineering has done with enough detail on this board (and a few other places) to let someone know the ballpark they would be in...further, once you are in the 700's, you don't gain much between a 740 and an 850/900 (or other range, depending on model).  Remember ALSO that scores are not the sole factor evaluated in whether to grant credit to a person.

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14 hours ago, 123890 said:

Why not sue fair isaac in a class action lawsuit?


Fair, Isaac & Company came up with a multi-variate statistical equation and assigned a numerical scoring value to the outcome. 

Based on that, what is your legal standing and what exactly is your injury? FICO assigns numbers for credit scoring, but if a financial institution decides to cut the limit of a current card holder by 75%, even though the individual is scored 820+ in all three bureaus - who is at fault? What if a bank decides to fund a new car loan for $40,000 to someone with ~ 540 scores across all the big three credit reporting agencies? 

FICO doesn't control who gets and doesn't get loans, they just did the math. Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion compile the info and report it. The banks, the CUs, and the financial institutions control the money and make the decisions.

Again, what is your specific injury? 

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59 minutes ago, insolent1 said:


Fair, Isaac & Company came up with a multi-variate statistical equation and assigned a numerical scoring value to the outcome. 

Based on that, what is your legal standing and what exactly is your injury? FICO assigns numbers for credit scoring, but if a financial institution decides to cut the limit of a current card holder by 75%, even though the individual is scored 820+ in all three bureaus - who is at fault? What if a bank decides to fund a new car loan for $40,000 to someone with ~ 540 scores across all the big three credit reporting agencies? 

FICO doesn't control who gets and doesn't get loans, they just did the math. Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion compile the info and report it. The banks, the CUs, and the financial institutions control the money and make the decisions.

Again, what is your specific injury? 

^^THIS^^

 

AND... some of the FICO haters fail to understand how credit was decisioned before credit scoring was common practice and before the ECOA and other regs.

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  • 1 month later...
On 9/8/2020 at 8:31 PM, 123890 said:

Thanks. Got a few laughs from the other links as well.

 

Why not sue fair isaac in a class action lawsuit?

 

How do I use BobWang's spreadsheet? (Edit: nm, found this great thread : https://creditboards.com/forums/index.php?/topic/606047-newbies-intro-to-the-marvels-of-bob-wang-fico-calculators-the-master-graphs-thread-etc/ )

@123890Do you have access to the spreadsheet? I wasn't able to download it, would you be able to share this if you do?

 

Thanks!

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