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When to buy a Used Car? Used car market crash?


cryix47
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I've been looking at getting a 2015-2017 used vehicle, but the pricing seems to be fluctuating across different makes and models by several grand. The recent new of Hertz filing for Chapter 11 puts further strain on the market. I've been banking my unemployment to buy a vehicle, but it remains to be seen when would time to make such a purchase.

 

Will prices tank even further? How long should I continue to wait?

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Well I was reared as a Jehovah's Witness and was taught the apopclypse that ended the world would be in 1975. I no longer participate but that prediction proved to be wrong since I'm still kicking.

I don't know what the future shall hold for the automotive industry, and I'd not be comfortable in making a prediction.

Don't forget who your are dealing with,. You'll find it difficult to pin me down about the future of the auto business or any other business for that matter.

Buy what you want when Your Time and Circumstances are to Your Liking.

Sent from my SM-P580 using Tapatalk

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20 hours ago, cryix47 said:

I've been looking at getting a 2015-2017 used vehicle, but the pricing seems to be fluctuating across different makes and models by several grand. The recent new of Hertz filing for Chapter 11 puts further strain on the market. I've been banking my unemployment to buy a vehicle, but it remains to be seen when would time to make such a purchase.

 

Will prices tank even further? How long should I continue to wait?

FWIW I actually bought my current car from Hertz in March, and I love it and the pricing was amazing. Desired model and top trim. I actually bought it on the day the quarantine started, I got in just under the wire.

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I kind of want to pull the trigger and buy a vehicle with the unemployment that I've saved, but the feelings of uncertainty  have me on edge about it. There's supposedly another stimulus package in the works but it's uncertain if the extra $600 per week will be extended. I'm in the fine dinning service industry, which doesn't look like it'll spring back rapidly.

 

 

There's also the uncertainty about used car prices. They could fall, or stay the same.

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30 minutes ago, cryix47 said:

I kind of want to pull the trigger and buy a vehicle with the unemployment that I've saved, but the feelings of uncertainty  have me on edge about it. There's supposedly another stimulus package in the works but it's uncertain if the extra $600 per week will be extended. I'm in the fine dinning service industry, which doesn't look like it'll spring back rapidly.

 

 

There's also the uncertainty about used car prices. They could fall, or stay the same.

Just be very careful until you are fully employed before taking on a car payment.

 

My brother was ecstatic today to finally eat out and have breakfast at The Egg in CO

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3 hours ago, creditmaze said:

Just be very careful until you are fully employed before taking on a car payment.

 

My brother was ecstatic today to finally eat out and have breakfast at The Egg in CO

Second this advice.  When you are unsure of your income, the last thing you should be doing is adding expense obligations (or draining emergency fund) unless absolutely necessary.  Nothing is going to change that significantly in the marketplace in the next 60-90 days IMO that you need to act now.  What if your restaurant doesn’t come back and there is no more unemployment?  Even when you are back I would be willing to bet it’ll be some time before things are back to pre-Covid levels.  The last thing you need is a $X00 note hanging over your head with no income.  Once you’re back to work and things are stable then go for the car, there will still be tons of options.

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At the risk of being crass, I'll tell you an old car saying. There will a lot ways be an ass for every seat. This current health crises has been allowed to invade much of our lives, whether with or without justification. It has invaded our board and I am extremely reluctant to let this sensitivity invade the automotive forum.

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It's the reality of things....... Would you want to obscure the situation by sugar coating? The market will be great for those in need of vehicle like myself, but it remains to be seen what happens with the market now that 10% of all mortgages are in forbearance.

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7 hours ago, cryix47 said:

It's the reality of things....... Would you want to obscure the situation by sugar coating? The market will be great for those in need of vehicle like myself, but it remains to be seen what happens with the market now that 10% of all mortgages are in forbearance.

So what happens if used car prices fall, and that puts a dent in new vehicle sales?

 

Answer:  Auto manufacturers will increase incentives on new vehicles, making them more appealing compared to used.

 

There are so many variables right now, including unpredictable new car supply, which could drive more consumers into the used market.

 

The best time to buy a car is when you need one, not when you have money burning a hole in your pocket and you're hoping to time the market.

 

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Even IF the rental companies entering BK to restructure their finances DID place vehicles on the market, think about how rentals are driven, particularly by the people that don't give a damn about the car since, after all...it isn't their car.  I know of multiple agencies that have seen vehicles come back in with major damage, had it fixed and then sold them without disclosure.  Enterprise is noted for doing this with vehicles they keep on lots attached to body shops.  Steps are then taken to keep the report from appearing on CarFax and the other 'feel good' services that people use as an excuse not to do their own due diligence.  I know of at least one of these first-hand, with Enterprise having tried to get me for a small four-figure sum...by the time I learned about it (while trying to get a card from my dealership's private Enterprise desk), the vehicle had been sold.  The damage was confirmed to have never been disclosed to the seller...

 

We are not in a window of time like with the Hertz Mustangs of the 60's that had roll-bar weld marks from the weekend rental racers, but they ARE fleet-mobiles that take more abuse than a person gives their own vehicle. 

 

If you need a vehicle, then buy one.  If not, then don't.  But do NOT go into the paralysis by analysis mode by playing the 'what if' games.  And just remember that analysts are noted for being wrong almost as frequently as others are right...if this were not the case, we wouldn't have a stock market.  For every seller, there is often a buyer.  Or, as noted above, an ass for every seat...

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I bought a CPO Subaru in February. If I had a crystal ball I would have put it off a few months. Not because the market dictates it but because I have barely driven in the past 60 days and could have done without the car. That being said, even if the value of the car dropped 20% (which it hasn't) it is what it is. If you need a car buy one, If you don't put it off and try your hand at timing the market. I don't think you will see a huge swing on popular models. Auto production on new cars is down, which means that supply will be short in the comping months. One could predict that would drive used prices UP. No one can tell the future. One thing I will say is a corporate bankruptcy like Hertz is not a liquidation, it is a restructuring. They are NOT dropping 500k cars on the used car market.

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6 hours ago, centex said:

Even IF the rental companies entering BK to restructure their finances DID place vehicles on the market, think about how rentals are driven, particularly by the people that don't give a damn about the car since, after all...it isn't their car.  I know of multiple agencies that have seen vehicles come back in with major damage, had it fixed and then sold them without disclosure.  Enterprise is noted for doing this with vehicles they keep on lots attached to body shops.  Steps are then taken to keep the report from appearing on CarFax and the other 'feel good' services that people use as an excuse not to do their own due diligence.  I know of at least one of these first-hand, with Enterprise having tried to get me for a small four-figure sum...by the time I learned about it (while trying to get a card from my dealership's private Enterprise desk), the vehicle had been sold.  The damage was confirmed to have never been disclosed to the seller...

 

We are not in a window of time like with the Hertz Mustangs of the 60's that had roll-bar weld marks from the weekend rental racers, but they ARE fleet-mobiles that take more abuse than a person gives their own vehicle. 

 

If you need a vehicle, then buy one.  If not, then don't.  But do NOT go into the paralysis by analysis mode by playing the 'what if' games.  And just remember that analysts are noted for being wrong almost as frequently as others are right...if this were not the case, we wouldn't have a stock market.  For every seller, there is often a buyer.  Or, as noted above, an ass for every seat...

If the vehicles flooded the market it would be better for me when it comes to brands like Mazda, and Honda. Neither does fleet sales. It would also dilute the inventory of cars with manual transmission. Manual vehicles seem to sell faster than auto cars because they're harder to find.

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1 hour ago, cryix47 said:

If the vehicles flooded the market it would be better for me when it comes to brands like Mazda, and Honda. Neither does fleet sales. It would also dilute the inventory of cars with manual transmission. Manual vehicles seem to sell faster than auto cars because they're harder to find.

I don't see how it would effect the market for manual transmission vehicles. Manual transmission rental cars are scarce at best and non-existent outside of specialty cars. 

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15 hours ago, tomforr said:

I don't see how it would effect the market for manual transmission vehicles. Manual transmission rental cars are scarce at best and non-existent outside of specialty cars. 

Within the US, this is definitely the case...and I doubt that the cool overseas offerings with manual and RHD would be landing on the shores here...even with the history of some rentals, I have to admit that I would snap a few of THOSE up.  But domestic fleetmobiles...hard pass. 

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3 hours ago, centex said:

Within the US, this is definitely the case...and I doubt that the cool overseas offerings with manual and RHD would be landing on the shores here...even with the history of some rentals, I have to admit that I would snap a few of THOSE up.  But domestic fleetmobiles...hard pass. 

Before I got my car I spent eons reading this and I see it a lot about rental cars being the fastest cars in the world, and when I lived in Ireland I do remember my ex-husband abusing the clutch on rentals.

 

Also you have to know at least one person banged in it. At least!

 

But I really wanted the car I got and I really didn't want to spend another $8-10K on it, and I also felt like logically a lot of people probably aren't "driving the arse out of" a small Buick SUV. I haven't had it too long and the day I got it inspection sites closed indefinitely, but I don't think it's in bad condition and I suspect it will do ok in inspection. 

 

There is a ton of back and forth about rental car abuse but I read a lot of feedback from buyers who had no complaints. It hasn't been mine long enough to say that yet but I LOVE MY CAR SO MUCH. 

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3 hours ago, centex said:

Within the US, this is definitely the case...and I doubt that the cool overseas offerings with manual and RHD would be landing on the shores here...even with the history of some rentals, I have to admit that I would snap a few of THOSE up.  But domestic fleetmobiles...hard pass. 

If they bring any RHD manual trans cars from overseas I would definitely pick at least one up. One can dream...

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