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1 hour ago, IndyPoolPlayer said:

Instead of handing out money which could be spent irresponsibly, Let's just build large housing complexes with individual units and make them all free. Government food will be delivered to each housing unit for free. On site health care will be found at each housing complex also for free. On site security will be found at each housing complex, making sure every resident is safely in their unit every night. When a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19 breaks out, the on site security can make sure everyone is safely in their unit and kept there until the all clear is given.

That's not a bad idea, but it would likely cost more, which is something we tend to see in a lot of ... I mean it was Yang's entire schtick, wasn't it?

 

It's just cheaper, especially temporary, to give people money but.

 

This isn't giving people money. This is giving people money to stay away from us, people who live paycheck to paycheck and will go into work sick because they have no choice.

 

We talk a lot about assuming everyone is infected, but in cities and places where sick people roam, others are sickened. Which goes back to the objective of all the measures in sum: get the rate of reproduction down to one. It's as high as almost 6 right now, and when it drops below one, it can't spread. 

 

That's what we need. We're not paying people to be irresponsible, we're paying them not to come to Applebee's and infect 20 of 200 people by touching their dishes. 

 

If we really wanna do this, we can do it after the pandemic, but the entire goal now is to keep people home. 

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I received the final docs for e-signature by email today. Promissory note, disbursement request and authorization. Repayment begins in November.   The accompanying email states: Please

Watched this in its entirety and I am speechless. My thoughts  and I will leave it here - We botched with inaction and more should have been done while watching and waiting to hit us... 

Yeah, this is and has been an ongoing problem. I'm old enough to remember when employee benefits included separate buckets for sick time and vacation time. Steadily it has moved towards PTO which you

1 hour ago, IndyPoolPlayer said:

Instead of handing out money which could be spent irresponsibly, Let's just build large housing complexes with individual units and make them all free. Government food will be delivered to each housing unit for free. On site health care will be found at each housing complex also for free. On site security will be found at each housing complex, making sure every resident is safely in their unit every night. When a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19 breaks out, the on site security can make sure everyone is safely in their unit and kept there until the all clear is given.

 

Don't forget about the homeless. Maybe not a big deal elsewhere, but here in California, and in SF where I live, why don't we build more homeless navigation centers conveniently located on the Embarcadero near the Waterfront and multi-million dollar condos. Let's kick them out, and replace them with homeless so we don't spread covid-19. 

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1 hour ago, IndyPoolPlayer said:

Instead of handing out money which could be spent irresponsibly, Let's just build large housing complexes with individual units and make them all free. Government food will be delivered to each housing unit for free. On site health care will be found at each housing complex also for free. On site security will be found at each housing complex, making sure every resident is safely in their unit every night. When a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19 breaks out, the on site security can make sure everyone is safely in their unit and kept there until the all clear is given.

Isn't this called prison?

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46 minutes ago, kaylee34 said:

Isn't this called prison?

We often let many of those out and about without supervision...we call THOSE the trustys LOL!  Yes, literally...they go out the backgate and come home around 630P each evening.  Often doing stuff like horse barn, dog kennels and wastewater treatment.  Others will drive tractors 12 hours a day...

 

For a while, we even had an inmate who was assigned to a nearby airport to tend to the State plane...no, he did not have a pilot's certificate, but getting a plane OFF of the ground is NOT a challenge (getting it back ON the ground IN ONE PIECE is where the talent comes in). 

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We used to have a few trustys from the regional jail out and about around here. Sometimes you'd see them digging or cleaning out ditches. A few that had an ag background would help out on the local farms. It was actually a rather hilarious program. You could call up and "place an order". If there was a lot of seasonal demand, you got put on the waiting list. 

 

Then the laws changed and now the prisoners have so many rights they don't even have to pick up the trash anymore. 

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2 hours ago, smartlypretty said:

That's not a bad idea, but it would likely cost more, which is something we tend to see in a lot of ... I mean it was Yang's entire schtick, wasn't it?

 

It's just cheaper, especially temporary, to give people money but.

 

This isn't giving people money. This is giving people money to stay away from us, people who live paycheck to paycheck and will go into work sick because they have no choice.

 

We talk a lot about assuming everyone is infected, but in cities and places where sick people roam, others are sickened. Which goes back to the objective of all the measures in sum: get the rate of reproduction down to one. It's as high as almost 6 right now, and when it drops below one, it can't spread. 

 

That's what we need. We're not paying people to be irresponsible, we're paying them not to come to Applebee's and infect 20 of 200 people by touching their dishes. 

 

If we really wanna do this, we can do it after the pandemic, but the entire goal now is to keep people home. 

Please explain how any of this is a good idea. 

How does this teach people to be responsible adults and not burdens on society?

How does this teach pride, work ethics, independence and produce a culture that can teach this to future generations?

I understand you're primarily talking about a temporary situation in these extreme times but I assure you, the longer this temporary situation continues, the more people will become used to it and want it to be permanent. If no one is working, where do things come from? 

 

Giving people money to "stay away from us" smacks of blackmail to me. 

 

Apologies if this crosses over any lines. 

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55 minutes ago, kaylee34 said:

Please explain how any of this is a good idea. 

How does this teach people to be responsible adults and not burdens on society?

How does this teach pride, work ethics, independence and produce a culture that can teach this to future generations?

I understand you're primarily talking about a temporary situation in these extreme times but I assure you, the longer this temporary situation continues, the more people will become used to it and want it to be permanent. If no one is working, where do things come from? 

 

Giving people money to "stay away from us" smacks of blackmail to me. 

 

Apologies if this crosses over any lines. 

 

We first have to got to find common ground on when we can open up the economy. So long as the focus remains on getting good data (testing, containment, tracing), time is not spent on getting the framework in place to open up economies at the state level. Until that narrative changes, everything you just described is going to get more entrenched and a way of life.

Edited by NorCalR1
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1 hour ago, NorCalR1 said:

 

We first have to got to find common ground on when we can open up the economy. So long as the focus remains on getting good data (testing, containment, tracing), time is not spent on getting the framework in place to open up economies at the state level. Until that narrative changes, everything you just described is going to get more entrenched and a way of life.

I try to be nice and play by the rules in other people's sandboxes. I can't speak my mind but so much on these particular subjects. That would charge WAY over the lines here. 

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1 hour ago, NorCalR1 said:

 

We first have to got to find common ground on when we can open up the economy. So long as the focus remains on getting good data (testing, containment, tracing), time is not spent on getting the framework in place to open up economies at the state level. Until that narrative changes, everything you just described is going to get more entrenched and a way of life.

There's also that there is not really wiggle room, and the federal government acknowledges this.

 

If we had properly done lockdown from March 17th, we'd be close the low r naught and ready to lift in early May.

 

We kicked the can down the road while the economy hemorrhaged and NYC lost thousands of people.

1 hour ago, kaylee34 said:

Please explain how any of this is a good idea. 

How does this teach people to be responsible adults and not burdens on society?

How does this teach pride, work ethics, independence and produce a culture that can teach this to future generations?

I understand you're primarily talking about a temporary situation in these extreme times but I assure you, the longer this temporary situation continues, the more people will become used to it and want it to be permanent. If no one is working, where do things come from? 

 

Giving people money to "stay away from us" smacks of blackmail to me. 

 

Apologies if this crosses over any lines. 

This comment is perfectly understandable in normal conditions, but it's just not how pandemic management works.

 

How does this teach people to be responsible adults and not burdens on society? Arguably relevant outside a pandemic.

 

Sort of like arguing outside a fire about who started it - we need to put it out first or the neighbors will also lose their homes. 

 

How does this teach pride, work ethics, independence and produce a culture that can teach this to future generations? 

 

Again, not the issue even 1%. The payments are to get the r naught below 1. Everyone is in agreement here, but no one is doing it.

 

I understand you're primarily talking about a temporary situation in these extreme times but I assure you, the longer this temporary situation continues, the more people will become used to it and want it to be permanent. If no one is working, where do things come from? 

 

"I understand a claim payout is one time, but what's to stop people from just crashing their cars all the time to get money?" 

 

It is 100% impossible to decouple "these measures" from "averting a worse pandemic." They are irrevocably linked and it's obvious at the first possible moment the imaginary not-yet-there payments will cease, so who cares who wants what? The government is not going to fund staying at home the nanosecond it's feasible, so it's irrelevant. 

 

Giving people money to "stay away from us" smacks of blackmail to me. But it's the literal only way to stop the pandemic. It's the only way to get the rate of reproduction from 5.7 to 0.9 or lower. Until we do that we're still kicking the can down the road.

 

All of this stuff is interlinked but the "discussion about responsibility" is in actuality a discussion about "letting the virus spread." There are two options we have:

  • Largely stay home until the RoR is <1, and then implement the measures discussed in @NorCalR1's post, rescinding them if the number moves back OVER one, or;
  • Let the virus spread unchecked (which it will do, absolutely without question) and absorb the hit to the economy from mortality in excess of 8% plus the deaths of people in car crashes, in cardiac events, in childbirth etc. Which is costly but also ghoulish.

 

The people who are angling for option B and thinking it's the best shot to save the stock market want you to think paying people to stay home is teaching irresponsibility.

 

But there is no question it's moot, because the money is gone when the pandemic is over. Then they can learn about personal responsibility etc. Right now, as a society, we have no choice but to pick one or one will be picked for us -- and you don't want to live in an epicenter, it is unpleasant. 

 

The rest of the world bar Sweden is not acting as if this is a debate, they just acted like grownups and did it. Which is what we have to do, or we have to say "we'll just let it spread," but no one seems to think that is a good idea.

 

Again, I refer to Mike Pence's comments at the press conference the day before yesterday. Pence and Fauci explained we have no other option but to stay home. It's a long presser but Pence talked for 15-25 minutes. He said the things I'm saying. 

 

And again, I think all your concerns are valid outside of this obvious black swan event we got going on. At this moment, none of that matters one whit, I assure you. 

 

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1 hour ago, smartlypretty said:

If we had properly done lockdown from March 17th, we'd be close the low r naught and ready to lift in early May.

 

We kicked the can down the road while the economy hemorrhaged and NYC lost thousands of people.

This comment is perfectly understandable in normal conditions, but it's just not how pandemic management works.

 

Pure speculation.

 

1 hour ago, smartlypretty said:

"I understand a claim payout is one time, but what's to stop people from just crashing their cars all the time to get money?" 

 

Crash enough cars and you won't find anyone to underwrite the policy. Not to mention each crash increases the chances of permanent injury or death. Eventually, there's consequences.

 

1 hour ago, smartlypretty said:

the money is gone when the pandemic is over. Then they can learn about personal responsibility etc.

 

 Really??!!?? 

 

1 hour ago, smartlypretty said:

-Snipped for length-  And again, I think all your concerns are valid outside of this obvious black swan event we got going on. At this moment, none of that matters one whit, I assure you. 

 

My comments are valid black swan event or no.  My parents were born in the midst of the Great Depression. Their parents were part of the Greatest Generation era. They didn't have to be "ordered" to sacrifice. They did it voluntarily because it was the right thing to do. For years.  I was raised under that umbrella and make no apologies for it. People today are whining because they're bored staying home playing the same xbox game.

 

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2 hours ago, hegemony said:

i wonder how many people will be shocked to learn the "small" business welfare "loans" don't require that they are paid back (unless the borrower breaks some very easy rules to abide by).

 Alot I believe. Easy to not pay attention now, but all this debt will have to be dealt with at some point. 

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1 hour ago, NorCalR1 said:

 Alot I believe. Easy to not pay attention now, but all this debt will have to be dealt with at some point. 

What I'm waiting for is the ones who are determined to not qualify for the forgiveness for whatever reasons down the road and end up declaring BK because they don't have the money to repay the loan.

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2 hours ago, hegemony said:

i wonder how many people will be shocked to learn the "small" business welfare "loans" don't require that they are paid back (unless the borrower breaks some very easy rules to abide by).

I received the final docs for e-signature by email today. Promissory note, disbursement request and authorization. Repayment begins in November.

 

The accompanying email states:

Please be advised that the loan product terms and conditions relating to amortization and repayment have changed.  The new amortization and repayment schedule are different from the terms you may have seen earlier during the application process. To align with SBA industry norms, after the payment deferral period, the payments will consist of a straight amortization of principal and interest for 18 months. There will be no balloon payment as was contained in the earlier product.

There's nothing in any of the paperwork from application to what I received today that mentions loan forgiveness. I will not be surprised if that ends up going out the window. If it's not in writing, it didn't happen. 

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A wise observation on your part. No doubt many others are thinking the same thing and justifiably worried as these programs can and will change. They appear to be very calculated on their verbiage on communications.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, NorCalR1 said:

They appear to be very calculated on their verbiage on communications.

Agreed. I've never seen as many quick changes to a loan program. I wasn't happy about the lack of transparency in the application or the process. I'm one who reads and understands everything I have to sign before pen touches paper no matter how long it takes. I'm not thrilled with the verbiage in that email. 

 

There's going to be at least some who never bother to read it paperwork and we'll have a whole new round of problems come November and December when the notes are due to start repayment. There's others like my company who simply have no other choices but sign or fold. 

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2 hours ago, kaylee34 said:

I received the final docs for e-signature by email today. Promissory note, disbursement request and authorization. Repayment begins in November.

 

The accompanying email states:

Please be advised that the loan product terms and conditions relating to amortization and repayment have changed.  The new amortization and repayment schedule are different from the terms you may have seen earlier during the application process. To align with SBA industry norms, after the payment deferral period, the payments will consist of a straight amortization of principal and interest for 18 months. There will be no balloon payment as was contained in the earlier product.

There's nothing in any of the paperwork from application to what I received today that mentions loan forgiveness. I will not be surprised if that ends up going out the window. If it's not in writing, it didn't happen. 

someone else's summary:

 

Quote

If you take out a PPP loan, you can submit a request to the lender that is servicing the loan for part or all of the loan to be forgiven. You will need to satisfy certain requirements, such as maintaining your staff and payroll, in order to be eligible for the maximum forgiveness amount. The maximum forgiveness amount, which must be substantiated by documentation, is the sum of expenses you incur or pay during the 8 week period following loan origination to cover payroll costs and mortgage interest, rent and utilities payments; provided, however, that not more than 25% of the forgiven amount may be for non-payroll costs

8 whole weeks of payroll :lol:

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2 hours ago, IndyPoolPlayer said:

What I'm waiting for is the ones who are determined to not qualify for the forgiveness for whatever reasons down the road and end up declaring BK because they don't have the money to repay the loan.

there is no PG or collateral required for these loans so BK might not even be needed.

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49 minutes ago, hegemony said:

there is no PG or collateral required for these loans so BK might not even be needed.

I didn’t see the requirement for any in the loan terms I read today. 
 

It did say that the penalty for default would be that interest will continue to accrue at the rate specified in the loan terms (1%). Not a lot of teeth in that for those that can’t pay. 

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49 minutes ago, kaylee34 said:

I didn’t see the requirement for any in the loan terms I read today. 
 

It did say that the penalty for default would be that interest will continue to accrue at the rate specified in the loan terms (1%). Not a lot of teeth in that for those that can’t pay. 

these seem a lot more like grants for real businesses (i.e., those that have real employees and actually make/produce/ something). I'm sure some of it will be misused but that can be expected with any rushed, large program like this.

 

I am very pleased that the second round includes some effort to prevent publicly traded "small" businesses using the program. The money needs to go to small companies that don't have other options.

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48 minutes ago, hegemony said:

these seem a lot more like grants for real businesses (i.e., those that have real employees and actually make/produce/ something). I'm sure some of it will be misused but that can be expected with any rushed, large program like this.

 

I am very pleased that the second round includes some effort to prevent publicly traded "small" businesses using the program. The money needs to go to small companies that don't have other options.

 

Are you in agreement with this option versus directly infusing cash into businesses impacted by covid-19 to maintain payroll at a minimum and monetary relief later as needed.

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47 minutes ago, NorCalR1 said:

 

Are you in agreement with this option versus directly infusing cash into businesses impacted by covid-19 to maintain payroll at a minimum and monetary relief later as needed.

I think a direct injection is more honest and has a lower transaction cost with more $$ going to the firm. I can see why, for the optics, a "loan" program is a lot easier to sell. Put differently, WTF thinks Chase & other servicers need to make money off an emergency helicopter program paid for by future tax payers?

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4 hours ago, kaylee34 said:

Pure speculation.

 

 

Crash enough cars and you won't find anyone to underwrite the policy. Not to mention each crash increases the chances of permanent injury or death. Eventually, there's consequences.

 

 

 Really??!!?? 

 

 

My comments are valid black swan event or no.  My parents were born in the midst of the Great Depression. Their parents were part of the Greatest Generation era. They didn't have to be "ordered" to sacrifice. They did it voluntarily because it was the right thing to do. For years.  I was raised under that umbrella and make no apologies for it. People today are whining because they're bored staying home playing the same xbox game.

 

On point one, I am certain it's not speculation based on the timing of these measures, what prompted them, and how data have borne out. We know what has to be done (r naught <1), and had we been more precise, we'd be there quicker. It's a combination of math, epidemiology, and chronology. 

 

It may be speculative orchestration was possible, but there are two points we keep dancing around:

  • Containment was possible through late February;
  • Containment failed, so suppression is what we are left with.

All of this baseline non-negotiable stuff is due to it being "novel coronavirus." If it was SARS-1, we'd have a protocol. We lack a protocol, hence we have only these measures on which to rely. And we haven't applied them consistently.

 

Ergo, we are paying the price in a protracted lockdown.

 

This is all stuff that we know to be scientifically true. "Many, many [more] people would die." Also I would again suggest reading the March 16th Imperial College London report to understand what specifically I'm referencing. We have epidemiological models, and they're all in agreement, and all public health officials are in agreement about what options we have on the table. 

 

To reiterate, there is no major disagreement in the core modeling or public health response as demonstrated by the WHO, CDC, etc. There are plenty of sub-studies going on to identify and produce pharmaceutical therapies, but the lack of informs all of this and there's no dissent there. No public health officials are saying "well, maybe we should just see what happens if we open the malls."

 

Re: car crashes, exactly my point. It's self-selecting. Anyone who makes hay when the UI sun shines as a strategy will learn these things when the pandemic ends. That funding, should it appear, will simply vanish. As should any hand-wringing about that impossible thing occurring, no one is getting their stimulus now, no one is gonna be living large on coronabucks in 2022.

 

On top of that, people are not even able to get the funding in many cases. People I know here have been unsuccessfully applying for UI for weeks. The combination of hard to get, flaky policies, and unknowns is enough to manage this problem. But it's so secondary to the flaming house we're all in. 

 

Of course your perspective is valid. I'd also say that the doctors and nurses dying in New York didn't have to be ordered to sacrifice either, and they're working their derrieres off for rounds of applause with no N95s. 

 

And I'd say that the Great Depression was terrible, and the New Deal ushered in the golden age. That was a robust plan to keep people working and out of poverty. Although Henry Ford was terrible and racist, he at least wanted all his men to be able to buy his cars. 

 

There were layabouts then too, but there were great jobs you could support a family on out of high school, and this country really had it going on. 

 

I have a bit more sympathy for people stuck home - I've worked here for over 10 years, but it's a scary time and they may say they're bored when they mean they're scared of getting sick or not having a job. People in my industry are getting in my inbox to ask about work, it's a scary time and people are putting on one face on social media and another in real life. I have two HS seniors, and they're not sure when or if college will start in the fall. No one knows what to expect, and it's unpleasant even if you have food and shelter.

 

All in all, I think everyone wants this over yesterday. We all don't want the coming economic contraction, or the loss of jobs, or the increase in jobless claims, or the masks, or the gloves, or the purell, or the weird rules at Trader Joe's. We want our jobs and our credit card points and the beach and to sit down and have someone bring you food and not be worried.

 

Very few if any people see this as windfall, but even if they did, it's pointless to discuss fostering dependency since when COVID-19 disappears, so too do the subsidies. 

 

ETA: In prior posts, I've mentioned secondary mortality as a factor in premature lifting of lockdowns. NYC had several thousand excess non-coronavirus deaths in this month over last year, and the EMTs even stopped transporting resuscitation cases.

Edited by smartlypretty
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