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14 hours ago, smartlypretty said:

When I stayed with my parents in law and mentioned the tiki nazis, they were ... they didn't really understand how we have this in America. Then they made me watch Blues Brothers, because I'd never seen it. 

You didn't know about the Illinois Nazis?  I HATE Illinois Nazis...

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1 hour ago, centex said:

You didn't know about the Illinois Nazis?  I HATE Illinois Nazis...

Now I do but they were horrified by the blank face of the woman their son apparently married :D 

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On 7/24/2020 at 3:33 PM, cv91915 said:

Science clearly says that schools should reopen in the fall.

 

Don't even try to argue with this because it's science.  And science is unimpeachable.

References

  1. Zhen-Dong Y, Gao-Jun Z, Run-Ming J, et al. Clinical and transmission dynamics characteristics of 406 children with coronavirus disease 2019 in China: A review [published online ahead of print, 2020 Apr 28]. J Infect. 2020;S0163-4453(20)30241-3. doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.030
  2. Choi S-H, Kim HW, Kang J-M, et al. Epidemiology and clinical features of coronavirus disease 2019 in children. Clinical and experimental pediatrics 2020;63(4):125-32. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.3345/cep.2020.00535external icon
  3. Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Children — United States, February 12–April 2, 2020. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69:422–426.
  4. Armitage R, Nellums LB. Considering inequalities in the school closure response to COVID-19. Lancet Glob Health. 2020;8(5):e644. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30116-9
  5. CDC COVID Data Tracker. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. Accessed on July 23, 2020.
  6. National-Centre-for-immunization-research-and-surveillance. COVID-19 in schools–the experience in NSW, April 26, 2020. Accessed 07/08/2020. Available at: http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/NCIRS NSW Schools COVID_Summary_FINAL public_26 April 2020.pdf
  7. Ludvigsson JF. Children are unlikely to be the main drivers of the COVID-19 pandemic – A systematic review [published online ahead of print, 2020 May 19]. Acta Paediatr. 2020;10.1111/apa.15371. doi:10.1111/apa.15371
  8. Danis K, Epaulard O, Benet T, et al. Cluster of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in the French Alps, 2020. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2020 doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa424external icon
  9. World Health Organization (WHO). Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). 16-24 February 2020. Accessed 07/10/2020. Available at: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
  10. Children and COVID-19. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, The Netherlands. Accessed 07/08/2020. Available at: https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19
  11. Gudbjartsson DF, Helgason A, Jonsson H, et al. Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(24):2302-2315. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2006100
  12. Dorn E, Hancock B, Sarakatsannis J, Viruleg E. COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: the hurt could last a lifetime. Retrieved July 4, 2020, from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime.
  13. Gross, Bethany (2020) Center for Reinventing Public Education. Too Many Schools leave Learning to Chance During the Pandemic. https://www.crpe.org/publications/too-many-schools-leave-learning-chance-during-pandemic Assessed on July 8, 2020.
  14. https://www.nwea.org/blog/2018/summer-learning-loss-what-we-know-what-were-learning/external icon
  15. Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner, and the Oportunity Insights Team. How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies A↵ect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data. Opportunity Insights. June 17, 2020. https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
  16. Dorn E, Hancock B, Sarakatsannis J, Viruleg E. COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: the hurt could last a lifetime. Retrieved July 4, 2020, from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime.
  17. S. Department of Education, Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, Consolidated State Performance Report, 2017–18. See Digest of Education Statistics 2019.
  18. Collaborative for Academic, Social, and Emotional Learning (CASEL). What is SEL? Website. https://casel.org/what-is-sel/external icon.
  19. Foster, C. E., Horwitz, A., Thomas, A., Opperman, K., Gipson, P., Burnside, A., Stone, D. M., & King, C. A. (2017). Connectedness to family, school, peers, and community in socially vulnerable adolescents. Children and youth services review, 81, 321–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2017.08.011
  20. Loukas A, Roalson LA, & Herrera DE (2010). School connectedness buffers the effects of negative family relations and poor effortful control on early adolescent conduct problems. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 20(1), 13–22
  21. Fegert JM, Vitiello B, Plener PL, and Clemens V. Challenges and Burden of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic for Child and Adolescent Mental Health: A Narrative Review to Highlight Clinical and Research Needs in the Acute Phase and the Long Return to Normality. Child Adolesc Psychiatry Ment Health. 2020 May 12;14:20.
  22. Brooks SK, Webster RK, Smith LE, Woodland L, Wessely S, Greenberg N, et al. The psychological impact of quarantine and how to reduce it: rapid review of the evidence. 2020;395(10227):912–920. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30460-8.
  23. Burns BJ, Costello EJ, Angold A, Tweed D et al. Children’s Mental Health Service Use Across Service Sectors, Health Affairs, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1995: 149-159.
  24. Return to School During COVID-19, American Academy of Pediatrics, Healthy Children website: https://www.healthychildren.org/English/health-issues/conditions/COVID-19/Pages/Return-to-School-During-COVID-19.aspx, Last updated 7/8/2020.
  25. Constantino J, Sahin M, Piven J, Rodgers R, and Tschida J. The Impact of COVID-19 on Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: Clinical and Scientific Priorities. Am J Psychiatry, submitted.
  26. Turk MA, Landes SD, Formica MK, and Goss KD: Intellectual and developmental disability and COVID-19 case-fatality trends: TriNetX analysis. Disability and Health Journal. 2020 May 22; [e-pub ahead of print] doi.org/10.1016/j.dhjo.2020.100942.
  27. US DHHS. Mental Health: A Report of the Surgeon General, Executive Summary. Rockville, MD: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Center for Mental Health Services, NIH, NIMH, 1999.
  28. Department of Health and Human Services (2018) Child Maltreatment 2018 https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/cb/cm2018.pdfpdf iconexternal icon
  29. WUSA (2020) Child abuse is likely going to underreported during the coronavirus pandemic. Here’s what you can do to help. https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/child-abuse-going-underreported-due-to-coronavirus-schools-being-out-maryland-dc-virginia/65-a04a5ecb-b91f-4f11-9421-56cf46972a89external icon Assessed on July 8, 2020.
  30. Baron, E. Jason and Goldstein, Ezra G. and Wallace, Cullen, Suffering in Silence: How COVID-19 School Closures Inhibit the Reporting of Child Maltreatment (May 14, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3601399external icon or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3601399 external icon
  31. Child Welfare Information Gateway. (2019.) Child maltreatment 2017: Summary of key findings. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Children’s Bureau.
  32. Campbell, A. (2020). An increasing risk of family violence during the Covid-19 pandemic: Strengthening community collaborations to save lives.  Forensic Science International: Reports, 2020 Apr 12. doi: 10.1016/j.fsir.2020.100089
  33. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/125/5/1094.full.pdfpdf iconexternal icon
  34. https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/cb/cm2017.pdfpdf iconexternal icon
  35. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/child-nutrition-programs/national-school-lunch-program/external icon
  36. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/child-nutrition-programs/school-breakfast-program/external icon
  37. Terry-McElrath, Y. M., O’Malley, P. M., & Johnston, L. D. (2015). Foods and beverages offered in US public secondary schools through the National School Lunch Program from 2011 – 2013: early evidence of improved nutrition and reduced disparities. Preventive Medicine, 78, 52-58.
  38. Johnson, D. B., Podrabsky, M., Rocha, A., & Otten, J. J. (2016). Effect of the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act on the nutritional quality of meals selected by students and school lunch participation rates. JAMA Pediatrics, 170(1), e15391.
  39. An, R. “Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model. Science. 2020

 

 

 

 

 

I got bored by #10 but at least one of those is from an industry publication, which is not unbiased. 

 

And many of these are from earlier in the year, and the issue is that we keep learning more about this disease, and adjusting based on new knowledge.  And what we knew in April is at least in part no longer applicable.

 

What we know now is that it's probably not a great idea to send kids back to school if there are alternatives available.  

 

Edit: We are also all aware that the initial recommendation from the CDC was that schools not reopen, and for reasons we can't discuss here, they were forced to publish this current recommendation.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Pam said:

I got bored by #10 but at least one of those is from an industry publication, which is not unbiased. 

 

And many of these are from earlier in the year, and the issue is that we keep learning more about this disease, and adjusting based on new knowledge.  And what we knew in April is at least in part no longer applicable.

 

What we know now is that it's probably not a great idea to send kids back to school if there are alternatives available.  

 

Edit: We are also all aware that the initial recommendation from the CDC was that schools not reopen, and for reasons we can't discuss here, they were forced to publish this current recommendation.

 

 

The point of my post was that there are mobs of people who are presenting "science" as a single, unimpeachable body of work when the science aligns with their point of view.  

 

As if wagging a finger at someone else while uttering the word "science" is supposed to end the discussion.

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Posted (edited)
On 7/24/2020 at 3:33 PM, cv91915 said:

Science clearly says that schools should reopen in the fall.

 

Don't even try to argue with this because it's science.  And science is unimpeachable.

References

  1. Zhen-Dong Y, Gao-Jun Z, Run-Ming J, et al. Clinical and transmission dynamics characteristics of 406 children with coronavirus disease 2019 in China: A review [published online ahead of print, 2020 Apr 28]. J Infect. 2020;S0163-4453(20)30241-3. doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.030
  2. Choi S-H, Kim HW, Kang J-M, et al. Epidemiology and clinical features of coronavirus disease 2019 in children. Clinical and experimental pediatrics 2020;63(4):125-32. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.3345/cep.2020.00535external icon
  3. ....
  4. Johnson, D. B., Podrabsky, M., Rocha, A., & Otten, J. J. (2016). Effect of the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act on the nutritional quality of meals selected by students and school lunch participation rates. JAMA Pediatrics, 170(1), e15391.
  5. An, R. “Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model. Science. 2020

 

 

The other word besides "science" that's supposed to shut you down from further argument is "data."

 

 

Major Discrepancies Between Federal And State Data on COVID-19 Infections, Deaths In Nursing Homes

 

According to the CMS data, one nursing home in San Diego County reported more than 1,300 deaths, but when NBC 7 Investigates contacted the facility, one of its directors laughed at how inaccurate the information was. A director for Casa De Las Campanas said the facility doesn’t even house that many residents, and if the information was accurate their entire nursing home residency would have “died twice.” The facility has had no deaths from COVID-19 to date, according to the director.

 

 

San Diego County Admits Errors in Covid Data

 

On Monday, county health officials released a chart claiming that Covid-19 hospitalizations had hit 529 - a number that inflated by more than 15%. When asked to explain the discrepancy between the data the county reported and what local hospitals had reported, the county admitted that the actual total of Covid hospitalizations was 458.

 

The San Diego Union Tribune, which has been criticized for its salacious and alarmist headlines and stories in its Covid reporting, chalked up the erroneous reporting data to a “simple math error.”

Edited by cv91915

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I SOOOOO wanted to create a Fauci drinking game this morning.  Roughly 15 minutes before Clyburn took off his own mask to discuss the Joint Committee hearing rules, the camera was zoomed in on Fauci at the table.  I lost count of the number of times his hands went to his face, that he took his mask off and that he dropped the mask below his nose.  All of these are things he (among others) claim we are not supposed to be doing since hands to the face was a prime way they claimed this thing spread...

 

Oh, and no glasses, despite his pronouncement the other day (along with Birx) that we should all be wearing goggles (Birx said face shield). 

 

Just another case of different rules for thee than for me...or is it 'do as I say, not as I do.'  I was leaving the house so I did not see how long it was after Clyburn quit speaking before he put his mask back on...

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1 hour ago, centex said:

I SOOOOO wanted to create a Fauci drinking game this morning.  Roughly 15 minutes before Clyburn took off his own mask to discuss the Joint Committee hearing rules, the camera was zoomed in on Fauci at the table.  I lost count of the number of times his hands went to his face, that he took his mask off and that he dropped the mask below his nose.  All of these are things he (among others) claim we are not supposed to be doing since hands to the face was a prime way they claimed this thing spread...

 

Oh, and no glasses, despite his pronouncement the other day (along with Birx) that we should all be wearing goggles (Birx said face shield). 

 

Just another case of different rules for thee than for me...or is it 'do as I say, not as I do.'  I was leaving the house so I did not see how long it was after Clyburn quit speaking before he put his mask back on...

As soon as the goggles thing came out, I said they're just making crap up to see who listens to their BS. Pretty soon we'll have the unwashed drones sporting old-school plague masks, beaks and all.

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7 hours ago, cv91915 said:

As deaths begin to trend downward again, the narrative to fuel ongoing panic (drive clicks and ratings) will change.

 

The focus will be on an endless parade of the horrifying things that might happen to you, if you neither catch the disease nor die from it.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/covid19-concerns-about-lasting-heart-damage/ 

 

Deaths are a lagging indicator, and due to the novel nature of the virus, long-term effects are ... novel. It feels like the news cycle swings around "fear based narratives" because we're in an unpredictable situation.

 

Also, deaths are tacked to capacity. Capacity gets exceeded, deaths and excess deaths go up. This will continue until we get some sort of handle on the situation. It sucks but it's not like these issues are invented by the media. 

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1 hour ago, smartlypretty said:

...novel nature of the virus, long-term effects are ... novel. ...

 

 

it is more like polio -- life changing health changes -- for many victims than a flu. But who has which long-term impact seems stochastic.

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On 7/28/2020 at 3:20 PM, cv91915 said:

The point of my post was that there are mobs of people who are presenting "science" as a single, unimpeachable body of work when the science aligns with their point of view.  

 

As if wagging a finger at someone else while uttering the word "science" is supposed to end the discussion.

There are hard sciences like physics and chemistry. And their are soft sciences like psychology. Microbiology, and medicine generally is in the middle and gradually becoming more of a science than a set of observations.

 

In the early days Covid-19 was thought to spread mainly by transfer of fomites from surfaces to hands then face. Next as larger droplets when people were close to someone infected and they sneezed or coughed. Finally there was aerosols which were considered irrelevant outside of some hospital procedures like intubation. This was the received wisdom from the CDC, WHO, and pretty much everyone else.

 

Not until April 1 did the paradigm start shifting when the nerds at National Academy (US version of the UK's Royal Society) published a letter indicating it was now acceptable in polite circles to talk about aerosols re Covid-19.

 

This has almost reversed and now the CDC, since about mid April, considers transmission from touching surfaces is unlikely in comparison to droplets and that aerosols are significant factors indoors.

 

Then there's this study full of geeky math. Take a gander:

 

Quote

Methods To evaluate the relative importance of multiple transmission routes for SARS-CoV-2, we leveraged detailed information available from the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship outbreak that occurred in early 2020. We developed a framework that combines stochastic Markov chain and negative exponential dose-response modeling with available empirical data on mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and human behaviors, which informs a modified version of the Reed-Frost epidemic model to predict daily and cumulative daily case counts on the ship.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049v1

 

So they are now saying aerosols, long range and short range, are the primary culprits. This is considered heresy by many scientists and obvious by many other scientists.

 

The WHO is internally squabbling and is reluctant to consider any sort of aerosol spread as significant. Same with masks. Yup, the WHO is not in favor of masks for the general public in most situations.

 

Meanwhile, there was a study out last year ranking countries by how prepared they were to a novel pandemic.  Out of 159 countries ranked, the USA was number 1 and the UK was number 2.  How'd that work out?

 

https://www.ghsindex.org/

 

Let's face it. Science's "facts" are mostly tentative beliefs in many cases and that has proven particularly true for Covid-19.  They really should be been more forthright about the very large number of unknowns from the start.

 

As for masks, there is limited indications of efficacy and mostly trapping a portion of exhaled virions from infected people. Protection from inhalation is considered to be much smaller and may be insignificant. However, about 40% of spread is believed to be from people that are not symptomatic hence the current recommendation that everyone wear masks. Especially indoors around others outside one's household.

 

But who knows. Things change as more data comes in. If it does and indicates masks suck., I'll be the first to toss mine.

Edited by cashnocredit

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I am sometimes amazed by how few people really understand science.  But then, I have a doctorate in a hard science, so perhaps I see things differently.  

 

This thread hasn't been bad, but you would be amazed how many times I see incredibly stupid things people say about science, from people who clearly don't understand it at all.  Such as "the scientists used to say X, but now they say Y, so clearly they are all idiots and we can just believe whatever we read in some conspiracy theory site on the internet".  Look back in time, and it was only a few decades from when scientists thought the atom couldn't be split to Hiroshima.  

 

Well, science is both a body of knowledge and a process.  I personally believe that the rise of Western Civilization a few centuries back can, to a very large extent, be attributed to the Scientific Method.  During the Dark Ages, there were many parts of the world far more advanced than Western Europe.  One could find places in Asia, Africa, the Americas and parts of Europe such as Spain which was occupied by the Moops (for Seinfeld fans) with better science and technology than most of Europe.  And the technology Europeans had was, to a large extent, borrowed from China, India, the Islamic Empire, etc.  

 

What changed?  Well, in the old days science was treated as a sort of magic.  Alchemists learned tricks from other alchemists, but there was a lot of secrecy, and not much in the way of peer review.  

 

The scientific method is simple.  You get data.  You try to figure out what the data mean.  You come up with some ideas (hypothesis) to explain the data.  You refine your hypothesis as you get more, and better data.  You publish your results and your conclusions, which are then torn apart by other scientists.  Eventually, when there are larger amounts of data which support a conclusion, a theory is born.  

 

Some non-scientists say "it's just a theory".  However, there are many theories which are so well established they are considered to be fact.  Such as gravity, or anthrogenetic global warming, or the atomic theory.  

 

It isn't always a clean process.  Sometimes two people can look at the same results and come to different conclusions.  I remember a time when there were two competing theories.  Two scientists who were proponents of the two theories did some experiments together they thought would settle the issue once and for all.  After they got their results, they published back-to-back papers in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, with the same results, but different conclusions.  One scientist said the data supported theory A, while the other said the data supported theory B.  One of the theories was dying out.  A number of research projects, including my own, put the final nails in the coffin of one of those theories.  

 

Nor are the brightest scientists always right.  One of the leading proponents of the theory that was killed off was a Nobel Prize winner.  That is not the most famous example.  Albert Einstein was the leading critic of Quantum Theory, which led to his being considered out of the mainstream in his later years.  

 

If you look at the sheer mountains of data, we see that the amount of data we have doubles every few years.  So more and better data, with faster computers, leads to refinements in our science.  The old theories are often not discarded, but refined a bit.  

 

What about COVID-19?  As has been pointed out, novel means new.  Last year we had almost no data, and that data was suppressed.  The amount of data we have today is vastly larger than what we had a few weeks ago.  In the past, it has often taken decades for one hypothesis or theory to supplant an earlier one.  Now we are seeing one of the greatest concentrations of research on a single topic in history, and data is multiplying quickly.  The changes in hypotheses which formally took years or decades can take weeks or months.  

 

And as others have pointed out, this is not as established a science as physics or chemistry. 

 

Now, what effect does the surge of research have?

 

Well, in the past, it always took years to develop a vaccine.  The record for the fastest vaccine development in history was for the mumps.  That took a lightning fast 4 years.  That was great, except for those of us who got the mumps in that 4 year period of time.  I remember being really, really sick.  

 

And not every disease can get a vaccine.  People have tried to develop vaccines for AIDS for almost 40 years without success.  

 

Can we get a vaccine for COVID-19 in the next few months?  Maybe.  Will it be effective?  Define effective.  MMR is over 90% effective.  Some flu vaccines are much less effective.  But even a 50-70% effective vaccine is better than nothing. 

 

What can we do?  

 

I would suggest wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, staying away from people as much as possible.  That seems to be the best way to minimize your chances of getting sick.  

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1 hour ago, BrokeBob said:

I am sometimes amazed by how few people really understand science.  But then, I have a doctorate in a hard science, so perhaps I see things differently.  

 

This thread hasn't been bad, but you would be amazed how many times I see incredibly stupid things people say about science, from people who clearly don't understand it at all.  Such as "the scientists used to say X, but now they say Y, so clearly they are all idiots and we can just believe whatever we read in some conspiracy theory site on the internet".  Look back in time, and it was only a few decades from when scientists thought the atom couldn't be split to Hiroshima.  

 

Well, science is both a body of knowledge and a process.

This is its own pandemic right now. There are reasons that's occurring, but it also self-perpetuates.

 

An evolving understanding of covid is expected, and we still don't know what we don't know. This constantly turns into a gotcha thing, and public health experts have to contend with a hostile public.

 

Perhaps my least favorite idea is "the science has advanced/changed so we can safely jump to X risk" or "Y issue was overblown/people overreacted." Following on from that is the predictable mitigation of transmission after the March recommendations, leading to a narrative that those early projections were "wrong" or "exaggerated." If you swerved to avoid something, of course you didn't crash. 

 

Ideally people made the best decisions possible with the available information at the time, which was obviously incomplete. It's distressing people are clamoring for less caution when understanding of this virus and the long-term effects are nascent. And too many people believe that the primary driver of policy here is an agenda, when the main agenda is really "minimize the number of deaths."

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1 hour ago, BrokeBob said:

What can we do?  

 

I would suggest wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, staying away from people as much as possible.  That seems to be the best way to minimize your chances of getting sick.  

 

Said..well.. 

 

I cannot say more than that, as Dr.Fauci himself get a bad rep with morons and alike who think they know better... so ya... social media got mangled by crooked people for their gain and agenda has "The tail that wagged the dog"... 

 

Most of them dont know why its called Covid -19 yet they are defining our life and how to live, while refuting the science... and then throwing dirt on Science with false narratives... 

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Well this sucks:

 

597 peeps attended a YMCA camp in Georgia. All had to provide a negative Covid test within 12 days prior to arrival. Lots of singing and cheering. May be a big factor. I've seen a study that indicated order of magnitude more virus emitted from just loud talking. That sort of thing could make masks much less effective.

 

Staff and trainees were there 4 days before campers. Shortly after the camp opened to campers a staffer got sick and left and was tested. Results were positive the next day and the camp started closing down over the next 3 days.

 

In the meantime 260 people for whom tests were administered, tested positive. Roughly 3/4 were symptomatic. Fever and headache the most common.

 

Looking at the tables provided, the larger the cabins, the higher the percentage of kids that tested positive. But not huge. 39% v 53%

 

There are lots of reports of summer camp breakouts in multiple states.

 

This was a very short time period for such a large spread to have occurred. There needs to be close watching of schools that attempt in school re-opening.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm#T1_down

 

 

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10 hours ago, cashnocredit said:

Well this sucks:

 

597 peeps attended a YMCA camp in Georgia. All had to provide a negative Covid test within 12 days prior to arrival. Lots of singing and cheering. May be a big factor. I've seen a study that indicated order of magnitude more virus emitted from just loud talking. That sort of thing could make masks much less effective.

 

Staff and trainees were there 4 days before campers. Shortly after the camp opened to campers a staffer got sick and left and was tested. Results were positive the next day and the camp started closing down over the next 3 days.

 

In the meantime 260 people for whom tests were administered, tested positive. Roughly 3/4 were symptomatic. Fever and headache the most common.

 

Looking at the tables provided, the larger the cabins, the higher the percentage of kids that tested positive. But not huge. 39% v 53%

 

There are lots of reports of summer camp breakouts in multiple states.

 

This was a very short time period for such a large spread to have occurred. There needs to be close watching of schools that attempt in school re-opening.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm#T1_down

 

 

And yesterday I drove by the local YMCA and the sign outside was advertising their summer camp...

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10 hours ago, cashnocredit said:

Well this sucks:

 

597 peeps attended a YMCA camp in Georgia. All had to provide a negative Covid test within 12 days prior to arrival. Lots of singing and cheering. May be a big factor. I've seen a study that indicated order of magnitude more virus emitted from just loud talking. That sort of thing could make masks much less effective.

 

Staff and trainees were there 4 days before campers. Shortly after the camp opened to campers a staffer got sick and left and was tested. Results were positive the next day and the camp started closing down over the next 3 days.

 

In the meantime 260 people for whom tests were administered, tested positive. Roughly 3/4 were symptomatic. Fever and headache the most common.

 

Looking at the tables provided, the larger the cabins, the higher the percentage of kids that tested positive. But not huge. 39% v 53%

 

There are lots of reports of summer camp breakouts in multiple states.

 

This was a very short time period for such a large spread to have occurred. There needs to be close watching of schools that attempt in school re-opening.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm#T1_down

 

 

I remember PotO mentioning way back in February that one could be tested negative and walk away and get infected minutes later. With turn around time to received test results taking days is a false sense of security IMHO

 

Checked the WHO website and displayed they do recommend wearing masks to slow and minimize the spread and I concur.

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47 minutes ago, StarkRaven$ said:

I remember PotO mentioning way back in February that one could be tested negative and walk away and get infected minutes later. With turn around time to received test results taking days is a false sense of security IMHO

 

Checked the WHO website and displayed they do recommend wearing masks to slow and minimize the spread and I concur.

Testing has been close to a complete disaster in the USA. Getting tests fast is the key and then getting the positive people isolated. After 48 hours a positive test is close to worthless. Most of the spread, if that person is a spreader, has already occurred.

 

Testing is most useful if done when community spread is already low. That was the initial intent with the various shutdowns done initially in March/April. It has also worked really well in a lot of other countries. The result of shutdowns here was more a plateauing rather than a suppression of the spread and testing never caught up enough to be useful for control.

 

Incentives are wrong. Testing is generating a lot of money for pharma and they benefit from the chaos. Payment for testing needs to be based on how quickly results are returned and testing needs to be more selective so it can be of at least some value until we get this under some sort of control.

 

On the positive side there has been a really big shift in the ages of people getting infected towards the younger. This has been keeping the death rates from skyrocketing like the case count. Also, treatments have improved though the primary shift has been the lower ages of most infected people. Just need to keep 'em away from the grandparents.

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44 minutes ago, cashnocredit said:

Testing has been close to a complete disaster in the USA. Getting tests fast is the key and then getting the positive people isolated. After 48 hours a positive test is close to worthless. Most of the spread, if that person is a spreader, has already occurred.

 

Testing is most useful if done when community spread is already low. That was the initial intent with the various shutdowns done initially in March/April. It has also worked really well in a lot of other countries. The result of shutdowns here was more a plateauing rather than a suppression of the spread and testing never caught up enough to be useful for control.

 

Incentives are wrong. Testing is generating a lot of money for pharma and they benefit from the chaos. Payment for testing needs to be based on how quickly results are returned and testing needs to be more selective so it can be of at least some value until we get this under some sort of control.

 

On the positive side there has been a really big shift in the ages of people getting infected towards the younger. This has been keeping the death rates from skyrocketing like the case count. Also, treatments have improved though the primary shift has been the lower ages of most infected people. Just need to keep 'em away from the grandparents.

Keeping them away from grandparents is why my DH won't allow our kids or grandkids into our house until there's a vaccine. He is disabled and wheelchair bound...high risk. Breaks my heart though when my blind son wants to come over and I have to tell him again that his dad is too worried about spread. My daughter's children will be home schooled.

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