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Corona virus and credit reports

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3 hours ago, Bad Doctor Frost said:

After this past weekend, 'Rona seems to be gone. Suddenly, there are no concerns about large groups. It's hilarious, but expected.

Biggest global over-reaction in history.

 

I don't think people will stand for quarantining the entire healthy population again, for anything, in my lifetime.

 

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1 hour ago, cv91915 said:

Biggest global over-reaction in history.

 

I don't think people will stand for quarantining the entire healthy population again, for anything, in my lifetime.

 

This is a really common misconception though- we quarantine the healthy, we isolate the sick.

 

People lived with intermittent quarantine between 1917 and 1919. There was also unrest and a World War at the time.

 

These things feel novel because they're not in living memory, but they've occurred together before. 

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50 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

This is a really common misconception though- we quarantine the healthy, we isolate the sick.

 

People lived with intermittent quarantine between 1917 and 1919. There was also unrest and a World War at the time.

 

These things feel novel because they're not in living memory, but they've occurred together before. 

A bit of semantic hyperbole. 

 

The vast majority of the able and the well and the healthy and the young in all 50 states stayed at home for months to avoid a very small risk, while people in nursing homes dropped dead by the tens of thousands, and trillions of dollars of wealth evaporated.   

 

Almost 40% of the deaths are in two contiguous northeast states.

 

Colossal overreaction of mind-bending magnitude.

 

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3 hours ago, cv91915 said:

A bit of semantic hyperbole. 

 

The vast majority of the able and the well and the healthy and the young in all 50 states stayed at home for months to avoid a very small risk, while people in nursing homes dropped dead by the tens of thousands, and trillions of dollars of wealth evaporated.   

 

Almost 40% of the deaths are in two contiguous northeast states.

 

Colossal overreaction of mind-bending magnitude.

 

This is the paradox of successful containment (arguably). When it's successful, it's considered an overreaction. When it isn't, the CDC "didn't act." We still have no therapies widely available for COVID-19, so we're about to find out if it was or wasn't hyperbole.

 

I hope you're right. Sincerely, I do. It would be far better for us going forward if people can safely return to 100% participation in their lives in and outside their homes. 

 

It could be argued that the two states in question were hit with the initial impact, and the following suppression inhibited the spread to other states. It could also be argued the risk in those areas was different than the risk in other states. Again, we are on the verge of finding out. 

 

The appearance of a novel virus with a 100K+ body count is not a situation where anyone has the right answers straightaway. All we can do is make educated guesses and act on what ever-changing information we do have. With the current events in all states, we're seeing a real-time test of how contagious it is in groups and gatherings. 

 

May the odds be ever in our favor.

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39 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

This is the paradox of successful containment (arguably). When it's successful, it's considered an overreaction. When it isn't, the CDC "didn't act." We still have no therapies widely available for COVID-19, so we're about to find out if it was or wasn't hyperbole.

 

I hope you're right. Sincerely, I do. It would be far better for us going forward if people can safely return to 100% participation in their lives in and outside their homes. 

 

It could be argued that the two states in question were hit with the initial impact, and the following suppression inhibited the spread to other states. It could also be argued the risk in those areas was different than the risk in other states. Again, we are on the verge of finding out. 

 

The appearance of a novel virus with a 100K+ body count is not a situation where anyone has the right answers straightaway. All we can do is make educated guesses and act on what ever-changing information we do have. With the current events in all states, we're seeing a real-time test of how contagious it is in groups and gatherings. 

 

May the odds be ever in our favor.


Yes, overreacting is giving cover to people who made terrible decisions, for the reasons you outlined.  It's why the game was played this way.

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14 hours ago, cv91915 said:

Didn't happen.

Didn't happen.

Didn't happen.

Actually it did happen, just mostly in other countries that were hit before us. It happened here as recently as this past week, when some hospitals in Cali were overloaded and had to turn away or transfer patients. To the extent it didn't happen here, it's because our containment and lockdown efforts were largely successful -- at least in flattening the curve instead of shrinking it.

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9 hours ago, cv91915 said:

Biggest global over-reaction in history.

 

I don't think people will stand for quarantining the entire healthy population again, for anything, in my lifetime.

 

 

At a minimum, it will be alot harder to convince people, to shelter in place for more than 15 days, unless there is a very real and very clear reason to do so. Across the US these past 8 days, so many are out in close proximity, and no one is talking about covid-19. If states do not see alarmingly high numbers of new cases, then yeah, it will be impossible to shelter in place and keep shopping, dining, events, sports, gyms, etc closed down.

 

Even if covid-19 numbers spike, I don't see people will go back to shelter in place voluntarily, if only because the economic damage at this point is bankrupting cities and states. 

 

 

 

  

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12 hours ago, Bad Doctor Frost said:

After this past weekend, 'Rona seems to be gone. Suddenly, there are no concerns about large groups. It's hilarious, but expected.

 

Depends on the numbers a few weeks from now. Covid-19 is still there. This time though, shelter in place will look ALOT different whether or not new cases spike.

 

 

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5 hours ago, cv91915 said:


Yes, overreacting is giving cover to people who made terrible decisions, for the reasons you outlined.  It's why the game was played this way.

Do you really think this was a game people played, or it was an attempt to try to minimize strain on hospitals and work with the best available information at the time?

 

Science and medicine are not a conspiracy to harm the economy. 

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I have been sheltering in place since Feb 12, 2020. I had my spouse take me to a tire place for some automobile maintenance about a week ago. I did not stay to wait. I was taken home until the vehicle was ready and went in quickly masked just to pay and pick up the car. One time my spouse let me go ride with him to the grocery store and he parked far away and would not let me leave the vehicle. I was masked there also.

 

I have severe underlying medical concerns that scare the fear of God in me, because I know I would not survive. I hope none of our members base is so complacent that they don't take proper precautions or treat this with the severity deserved.

 

No one is invincible and I hold you all in the dearest esteem.

 

Sent from my SM-P580 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, smartlypretty said:

Do you really think this was a game people played, or it was an attempt to try to minimize strain on hospitals and work with the best available information at the time?

 

Science and medicine are not a conspiracy to harm the economy. 

If this was about not straining hospitals, everything would be open already.  

 

This is the tool who pushed some of the most influential "science":  https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/professor-lockdown-modeler-resigns-in-disgrace/

 

By the way, I'm married to a scientist, so I can assure you firsthand that they aren't always right.

 

++++++++++  Excerpts from linked article ++++++++++

 

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that, by 2080, up to 150,000 people could die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

 

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

 

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

 

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

111

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?

 

 

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On 3/16/2020 at 11:56 AM, centex said:

It won't even be akin to a 'severe' case of the flu.  MOST people won't even realize they HAD the big bad coronavirus. 

 

Those who have the most substantial problems will be the same people who would have had a problem with a bad case of the flu.  The reality with this IS that some will obviously die, just as they do with the flu.  However, the lunacy that has pervaded the Country is absolutely uncalled for.  But because the masses seem incapable of using common effing sense, many have now lost their jobs or sustained temporary shut-downs of their employment that will cause them irreparable fiscal harm. 

Almost three months later and this seems to have been relatively accurate...and I suspect it will continue to be accurate when the numbers in the next few weeks are known.  After all, social distancing has clearly been thrown to the side...

 

 

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9 hours ago, MarvBear said:

I have been sheltering in place since Feb 12, 2020. I had my spouse take me to a tire place for some automobile maintenance about a week ago. I did not stay to wait. I was taken home until the vehicle was ready and went in quickly masked just to pay and pick up the car. One time my spouse let me go ride with him to the grocery store and he parked far away and would not let me leave the vehicle. I was masked there also.

 

I have severe underlying medical concerns that scare the fear of God in me, because I know I would not survive. I hope none of our members base is so complacent that they don't take proper precautions or treat this with the severity deserved.

 

No one is invincible and I hold you all in the dearest esteem.

 

Sent from my SM-P580 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

My brother is a retired anthropologist and he use to be dismissive about the percentages of deaths related to say the Asian Flu but once he acquired a health issue and he is now 70 years of age, he takes major precautions right now.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, smartlypretty said:

Do you really think this was a game people played, or it was an attempt to try to minimize strain on hospitals and work with the best available information at the time?

 

Science and medicine are not a conspiracy to harm the economy. 

There are MANY States that never even came remotely close to seeing their hospitals overloaded in ANY manner.  There are too many in the Northeastern part of the Country that STILL refuse to recognize that Cuomo, et al mismanaged things on a large scale.  Meanwhile, some States never even closed down and others that opened up are still waiting for the spikes that the fear-mongering nail biters insisted was supposed to have hit a month ago...

 

Edited to add that some of your commentary CANNOT be addressed here without running afoul of mod requests made of all CB members.

Edited by centex

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I just got back from the lab to have blood drawn for a plethora of tests for my Dr next week.  I was masked.   There were signs on the doors that masks were required to enter, and the facility could only hold ten people at a time.  I couldn't tell how many people were inside, so I stepped in and scanned my QR code, so I didn't have to touch anything.

Nobody was observing the 6-foot distance requirement, there was more than ten patients waiting and more than half of them did not wear masks, nor were they provided with masks.  When my turn came to go back for the blood draw and peeing in a cup, none of the technicians were wearing a mask, only the usual gloves normally worn when collecting blood samples.   I couldn't get out of there fast enough.

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I was at the Shell station and this middle aged man was leaning on the counter right next to where I was entering my cc info. I turned to him and held my hand out to back away. He had on a bandana not covering his nose. He looked startled at my gester and said with a sheepish chuckle, "Why did you fart?" I said sternly, "Trust me I would if I could to get you away from me." Then, a young man behind him tells me I don't have to be so rude. I told him I am so sorry you think it's rude that I am trying to protect my family. He shut out and wouldn't look at me.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, cv91915 said:

If this was about not straining hospitals, everything would be open already.  

 

This is the tool who pushed some of the most influential "science":  https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/professor-lockdown-modeler-resigns-in-disgrace/

 

Ferguson has been all over the place on predictions.

 

He predicted 500k UK deaths if zero measures were taken,

On March 25th he said he was "reasonably certain" UK deaths would be held below 20k.

 

UK deaths are over 40k as of today.

 

In April UofW's IHME model was predicting 50k deaths in the USA before daily deaths declined to zero by Aug. Deaths are now over 100k. It currently is predicting 135k deaths by Aug. but 200 deaths per day at that point.

 

 

Models try to reflect human behavior with a virus that had, and still has, a lot of unknowns. For instance it was initially believed to spread largely by coughing droplets that settled on surfaces people touched but rarely person to person through the air. Increased evidence has resulted in reversing those.  Current belief is that it is spread by droplets and aerosols between people interacting (especially talking/singing/shouting) closely and/or groups of people, indoors and together for a period of time. This is why masks are now the "in" thing. They have been shown to be effective at preventing transfer from sick to well.

 

Also outdoor spread, masked or not masked, is rare. Even when people are fairly close on occasion because air doesn't re-circulate in a closed environment.

Edited by cashnocredit

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, MarvBear said:

I just got back from the lab to have blood drawn for a plethora of tests for my Dr next week.  I was masked.   There were signs on the doors that masks were required to enter, and the facility could only hold ten people at a time.  I couldn't tell how many people were inside, so I stepped in and scanned my QR code, so I didn't have to touch anything.

Nobody was observing the 6-foot distance requirement, there was more than ten patients waiting and more than half of them did not wear masks, nor were they provided with masks.  When my turn came to go back for the blood draw and peeing in a cup, none of the technicians were wearing a mask, only the usual gloves normally worn when collecting blood samples.   I couldn't get out of there fast enough.

@MarvBear this is what makes me nervous. It's not that we can't safely begin to resume things. It's that the virus has become so politicized and polarized people won't be a mensch and wear the mask.

 

I'm probably likelier to survive, but I have one child whose insurance lapsed because of the pandemic, we need a court order to get it, and court has been adjourned 3x. So we're waiting. Like many widows and widowers, a part of me is very much enthused about joining my partner when I can. But I have obligations here, so I'm not afraid for myself but the others I might infect. 

1 hour ago, cashnocredit said:

Ferguson has been all over the place on predictions.

 

He predicted 500k UK deaths if zero measures were taken,

On March 25th he said he was "reasonably certain" UK deaths would be held below 20k.

 

UK deaths are over 40k as of today.

 

In April UofW's IHME model was predicting 50k deaths in the USA before daily deaths declined to zero by Aug. Deaths are now over 100k. It currently is predicting 135k deaths by Aug. but 200 deaths per day at that point.

 

 

Models try to reflect human behavior with a virus that had, and still has, a lot of unknowns. For instance it was initially believed to spread largely by coughing droplets that settled on surfaces people touched but rarely person to person through the air. Increased evidence has resulted in reversing those.  Current belief is that it is spread by droplets and aerosols between people interacting (especially talking/singing/shouting) closely and/or groups of people, indoors and together for a period of time. This is why masks are now the "in" thing. They have been shown to be effective at preventing transfer from sick to well.

 

Also outdoor spread, masked or not masked, is rare. Even when people are fairly close on occasion because air doesn't re-circulate in a closed environment.

Ferguson is not science and science is not Ferguson. He is one man, who led a team of researchers.

 

I want you to look at the bolded part. On March 16th, his team projected the 500K deaths, and by March 20th, many states and the UK went into lockdown. 

 

He then adjusted his original estimate based on the actions being taken to hamper initial spread.

 

Anyone who read the report in full knows we are exactly on track for cautious reopening -- IIRC, it said July through September with careful monitoring of infection levels. 

 

That is, of course, a bit up in the air considering recent events.

 

Ferguson had an affair, which has nothing to do with his science. The National Review is a highly slanted outlet with an agenda, by the by. 

 

There was a massive narrative that Ferguson et al "took back" their predictions, when in actuality, the modeling changed based on the precautions taken

 

Yes, there are still a lot of unknowns. That is why we as a society ought to adhere to anti-infection protocols. I won't likely get very sick, and if I do I won't likely die, and if I do I can stop missing my baby every second of every day, so I don't really mind if I do. 

 

But I do mind if I too go to the auto parts store and asymptomatically infect someone like Marv, who has a worse outcome, or others, and they die too. That is why we have to be cautious. 

 

I've said this before and I'll say it again. Lockdowns didn't destroy the economy. A novel virus did. Also science isn't one person the people decide to listen to, it is a system of ruling out and ruling in the best information we have at the time. Ferguson et al published on March 16th. That's 2.5 months ago now. 

 

I also married a scientist, who had to attend mortality conferences each year. And each year he told me that the biggest mass casualty threat was a novel zoonotic virus.

 

That and he told me that there was a bit of Africa that might fall off and cause tsunamis on the Eastern Seaboard. I miss his bedtime stories. 

Edited by smartlypretty

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3 hours ago, centex said:

There are MANY States that never even came remotely close to seeing their hospitals overloaded in ANY manner.  There are too many in the Northeastern part of the Country that STILL refuse to recognize that Cuomo, et al mismanaged things on a large scale.  Meanwhile, some States never even closed down and others that opened up are still waiting for the spikes that the fear-mongering nail biters insisted was supposed to have hit a month ago...

 

Edited to add that some of your commentary CANNOT be addressed here without running afoul of mod requests made of all CB members.

I feel like I just said this, but I reiterate that New York was hit hard, and the rest of the country started social distancing. 

 

Around Memorial Day, many people came out and partied. We're about to find out if we were over or undercautious. Hang on to your butts. 

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59 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

 

I want you to look at the bolded part. On March 16th, his team projected the 500K deaths, and by March 20th, many states and the UK went into lockdown. 

 

He then adjusted his original estimate based on the actions being taken to hamper initial spread.

That was my point. 500k without any actions. And then later in March after UK took action his prediction was under 20k which has turned out to be quite optimistic since they are already over 40k

59 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

Ferguson had an affair, which has nothing to do with his science. The National Review is a highly slanted outlet with an agenda, by the by. 

Yeah, but it wasn't just the affair but that he disregarded his (and the UKs) own guidelines. But he certainly didn't resign because the govt. believed his projections were wrong and that was implied by the NR piece. 

59 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

There was a massive narrative that Ferguson et al "took back" their predictions, when in actuality, the modeling changed based on the precautions taken

Yes, and that's what happened with the IHME model as well. Their early April projection of 50k deaths in the US was based on death rates because testing and case numbers were and are, not reliably reported in the US. At the time the only data available for the downside of the curve was Asian and mostly China where they had reduced R to .3 in the lockdown. Unfortunately, the US and pretty much everywhere else in the West oly reduced R to just under 1. That makes for a long tail so IHME upward revised as the new data came in.

59 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

Yes, there are still a lot of unknowns. That is why we as a society ought to adhere to anti-infection protocols. I won't likely get very sick, and if I do I won't likely die, and if I do I can stop missing my baby every second of every day, so I don't really mind if I do. 

 

But I do mind if I too go to the auto parts store and asymptomatically infect someone like Marv, who has a worse outcome, or others, and they die too. That is why we have to be cautious.

Exactly so. Well put.

59 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

 

I've said this before and I'll say it again. Lockdowns didn't destroy the economy. A novel virus did. Also science isn't one person the people decide to listen to, it is a system of ruling out and ruling in the best information we have at the time. Ferguson et al published on March 16th. That's 2.5 months ago now. 

 

I also married a scientist, who had to attend mortality conferences each year. And each year he told me that the biggest mass casualty threat was a novel zoonotic virus.

That's long been considered to be the most probably source of a new pandemic. Unfortunately the US and much of the West were not prepared. We didn't have surveillance testing in place, restricted private companies from rolling out tests, and the CDC itself screwed up what testing they distributed with false positives that greatly suppressed early knowledge of Covid-19 spread. That cost a lot. Korea had testing rolled out in a few weeks. Started contact tracing, and took measures that resulted in more than an order of magnitude less deaths with much less impact on their economy.

59 minutes ago, smartlypretty said:

 

That and he told me that there was a bit of Africa that might fall off and cause tsunamis on the Eastern Seaboard. I miss his bedtime stories. 

I've heard that one too. :)

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1 hour ago, smartlypretty said:

I feel like I just said this, but I reiterate that New York was hit hard, and the rest of the country started social distancing. 

 

Around Memorial Day, many people came out and partied. We're about to find out if we were over or undercautious. Hang on to your butts. 

We opened up over a month ago.  As of yesterday afternoon, we had 1,734 deaths.  Contrast that with 884 one month prior.

 

On May 4th, we had 32,332 cases from 407,398 tests.  Yesterday, we were up to 68,271 out of 1,150,868 tests.  And that number, as near as I can tell, incorporates the nearly 75K tests of inmates within TDCJ.  People afraid of their shadow were fear-mongering about daily case totals without paying attention to the decrease in rate.  

 

Florida ALSO has not had issues. 

 

A common denominator is that both States had governors that didn't mandate nursing homes to admit sick people.  Cuomo's decision killed more OLD people than have died in Texas and Florida...combined. 

 

And let me ALSO tell you that very few were masking up despite Dora the Explorer's 'mandate.' She STILL wants people staying home even as we move to 50% occupancy in restaurants (75% very soon).  

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48 minutes ago, cv91915 said:

What's particularly amusing is that 3 of the study's authors requested the retraction saying they couldn't get access to the data the study was based on. You'd think they wouldn't have put their name on the paper if they hadn't done that first. Especially after the red flag of 30% increased deaths.

 

It's well known there are lots of full blown, double blind Hydroxychloroquine studies that have been underway for some time. A basic part of these trials is that you terminate them once there are significant signs that what you are testing causes harm. Where are those terminations?

 

But here's another one. A double blind study is being widely touted in the press (eg. WaPo) as proving Hydroxychloroquine is no more effective than a placebo. The study does not. It has a small sample set that shows about 20% fewer exposed workers developed symptoms in the Hydroxychloroquine group compared to the placebo group. But it's a small sample size with a material chance it doesn't help. But that's a long way from the WaPo headline saying the study shows the same efficacy as placebo.

 

I think there is some sort of leakage from how polarized people are. They want to believe one thing or another so badly their brain turns off when the come upon anything that doesn't confirm their beliefs.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, cashnocredit said:

I think there is some sort of leakage from how polarized people are. They want to believe one thing or another so badly their brain turns off when the come upon anything that doesn't confirm their beliefs.

Agreed.

 

Maybe it happened sooner and I wasn't paying attention, but its seems to me that sometime in the past decade it's become popular to figuratively capitalize the "S" in "science," the same way some people capitalize the "G" in "God."    

 

As if uttering the word is supposed to end the discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by cv91915

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