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Corona virus and credit reports

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10 hours ago, Pam said:

Every study that has come out has shown that it does not actually help, and in caused harm in some cases.  Please feel free to keep up with the actual science.

And yet there are PLENTY of people who took it early after their positive test and came out fine...

 

In the event I were to come down with this and actually went to a doctor, it is what I am going for.  Skipping the Faucci remdisivir or however it is spelled...

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17 minutes ago, centex said:

And yet there are PLENTY of people who took it early after their positive test and came out fine...

 

In the event I were to come down with this and actually went to a doctor, it is what I am going for.  Skipping the Faucci remdisivir or however it is spelled...

Those people would have been fine WITHOUT the hydroxychloroquine.  That kind of uncontrolled anecdotal information is not proof of anything. And Fauci has no influence over independent, peer-reviewed studies.  There are too many people involved who would have to keep secrets and we all know people can't do that.

 

 

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Most of the Hydroxychloroquine studies have been small groups with varying results. Earliest out of China and France. There was a lot of excitement from the early data.

 

Now there's a fairly large, though still observational, study involving about 800 of 1400 hospitalized coronavirus patients in NY. No significant effects one way or the other.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410

 

 

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38 minutes ago, hegemony said:

Increased rates of testing will do that.  Considering that what we have seen since May 3rd is roughly one out of 15 testing positive, anyone fretting over a thousand cases is getting lost in the hype and not the reality.

 

9,500 positive test results in that time versus almost 148K tests(147,612 if you want to be precise).

 

 

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8 minutes ago, centex said:

Increased rates of testing will do that.  Considering that what we have seen since May 3rd is roughly one out of 15 testing positive, anyone fretting over a thousand cases is getting lost in the hype and not the reality.

 

9,500 positive test results in that time versus almost 148K tests(147,612 if you want to be precise).

 

 

AZ is seeing increased cases due to increased testing. But the % of people testing positive is going down and the Governor used that rationale to reopen Gyms and public pools 😕

 

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29 minutes ago, Krish said:

AZ is seeing increased cases due to increased testing. But the % of people testing positive is going down and the Governor used that rationale to reopen Gyms and public pools 😕

 

 

Glad to see that the stay at home order looks like it will be lifted Friday night and getting Gyms back open (with safety protocols) is a great first step.

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Ran across an article from a COVID group of researchers on the complexities of communicating with the public. I particularly appreciate the part I bolded:


 

Quote

 

Before we can share the dilemma of how best to manage any loosening of the lockdown, we must decisively— and apologetically—disabuse the public of the myth that, barring a miracle, the COVID-19 pandemic can possibly be nearing its end in the next few months.

The answers to many technical questions must inform this incredibly difficult decision. For instance:

  1. Is there any such thing as COVID-19 immunity?
  2. If so, how long might it last?
  3. When people who had mild or asymptomatic infections are counted, how close are we to herd immunity?
  4. How deadly is COVID-19 when we factor in untested people who had mild infections?

 

These are crucial questions to answer. But experts who sound to the public as if their answers can resolve the fundamental "lives versus economy" dilemma are overstepping their mandate and their expertise.

Provide the best data you can, and then leave the dilemma in the hands of political leaders and the public, where it belongs. The most useful single thing experts can say about this fundamental dilemma is that the answer depends partly on science but largely on values; that the science is uncertain; and that with regard to the values, scientists are merely members of the public.

 

 

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8 hours ago, cashnocredit said:

Most of the Hydroxychloroquine studies have been small groups with varying results. Earliest out of China and France. There was a lot of excitement from the early data.

 

Now there's a fairly large, though still observational, study involving about 800 of 1400 hospitalized coronavirus patients in NY. No significant effects one way or the other.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410

 

 

The page won't load for some reason.

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12 minutes ago, creditmaze said:

The page won't load for some reason.

No idea why:

 

The title is "Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19" New England Journal Of Medicine

 

 

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41 minutes ago, cashnocredit said:

No idea why:

 

The title is "Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19" New England Journal Of Medicine

 

 

Yeah I tried to click on that article and it would not load. Should I create an account?

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, creditmaze said:

Yeah I tried to click on that article and it would not load. Should I create an account?

I don't have an account at nejm.org. It should be readable by guests.

 

The full article should show up on that link without needing to click something else. I just checked it on Edge and Chrome as well as the old IE11

 

You might check and see if you can reach the domain. Might be an DNS or router problem in your area.  https://www.nejm.org should take you to their home page.

Edited by cashnocredit

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, cashnocredit said:

Ran across an article from a COVID group of researchers on the complexities of communicating with the public. I particularly appreciate the part I bolded:


The most useful single thing experts can say about this fundamental dilemma is that the answer depends partly on science but largely on values; that the science is uncertain; and that with regard to the values, scientists are merely members of the public.

 

 

Governor Newsom in California said we were at serious and high risk for over 20 million Californian's being infected with covid-19. Some Dr's were warning 500,000 deaths in the US by summer. Science has a role, but I agree, that in terms of values, Scientists are members of the public,

 

 

 

Edited by NorCalR1

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8 minutes ago, NorCalR1 said:

 

Governor Newsom in California said we were at serious and high risk for over 20 million Californian's being infected with covid-19. Some Dr's were warning 500,000 deaths in the US by summer. Science has a role, but I agree, that in terms of values, Scientists are members of the public,

 

 

 

The scientist's models have been all over the place. UofW's predictions, often used by the Feds, originally indicated 80k deaths going to zero in a few months then revised down to 50k. That didn't happen because the R wasn't reduced to well under 1 as they had expected from the social distancing imposed which was not nearly as extreme as Wuhan. We were a bit slow rolling out tests so knowledge that R wasn't low did not become apparent until recently when the daily deaths didn't decline as rapidly as expected. Now UofW's models predict 140k over the next two months and not declining to zero like the earlier model.

 

Science isn't perfect and some of them get carried away. Especially with a new bug. Probably the most consistent, and closest to what happened, was the Los Alamos National Lab models. They put them out every week or so and keep links to all their earlier predictions so you can see how new info has altered their forecasts. They've been doing this a long time with Flu modeling.

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1 hour ago, cashnocredit said:

The scientist's models have been all over the place. UofW's predictions, often used by the Feds, originally indicated 80k deaths going to zero in a few months then revised down to 50k. That didn't happen because the R wasn't reduced to well under 1 as they had expected from the social distancing imposed which was not nearly as extreme as Wuhan. We were a bit slow rolling out tests so knowledge that R wasn't low did not become apparent until recently when the daily deaths didn't decline as rapidly as expected. Now UofW's models predict 140k over the next two months and not declining to zero like the earlier model.

 

Science isn't perfect and some of them get carried away. Especially with a new bug. Probably the most consistent, and closest to what happened, was the Los Alamos National Lab models. They put them out every week or so and keep links to all their earlier predictions so you can see how new info has altered their forecasts. They've been doing this a long time with Flu modeling.

real scientist know that any conclusion reached via the scientific method is only a tentative conclusion as it may be altered with new observations (i.e., data). The only thing worse than an overly-assured scientist is a policymaker who goes with his or her gut to assert certain "scientific" facts such that a particular drug works for an ailment even though scientific analysis is lacking to make such a conclusion.

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3 hours ago, hegemony said:

real scientist know that any conclusion reached via the scientific method is only a tentative conclusion as it may be altered with new observations (i.e., data). The only thing worse than an overly-assured scientist is a policymaker who goes with his or her gut to assert certain "scientific" facts such that a particular drug works for an ailment even though scientific analysis is lacking to make such a conclusion.

This was also very very evident in the initial projections - they were only projections, and they were revised when measures began slowing the rate. 

 

Annoyingly, that created the predictable claim that the projections were "off," (not in this thread, just in general), which is like if someone pushes you out of the path of a moving vehicle and you get mad because it didn't hit you.

 

I'm too tired for a better analogy.

 

But the whole weaponizing of things we know better about is tiring. At work, we've managed to wring some corrections out of particular bad actors, but not before it was shared eleventy billion times on Facebook. 

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2 hours ago, hegemony said:

Well the military is going to be in-charge for WARP speed vaccine production. so yea, this is not getting any better for any of us.. human race is going to be extinct. Good thing is the future generations do not need to pay the debt...

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17 minutes ago, hegemony said:

My cousin shared a picture of a restaurant in Europe using pool noodle hats and all I could think is what if you took someone out to have a serious discussion with them about something important, and you finally get to do that, and they make you wear a pool noodle on your head?

 

"Listen, Linda, this has been great, but I think we should see other people ..."

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Posted (edited)
On 3/14/2020 at 1:21 AM, Burdell said:

The next  2-3 months are going to be very bad, for just about everyone.  Very, very bad.  We are on the same path as northern Italy, only we're about 10-14 days behind them.  What that means is that we will likely see a huge spike in corona virus cases -- thousands and thousands and thousands of people -- a significant portion of whom will require a lot of medical care, including ventilation, all at once. The hospitals and health care system in general will be overwhelmed, completely inundated.

Didn't happen.

Quote

 

There will be a literal triage process, and only those who people with a high chance of recovery with medical intervention will be admitted to the hospitals, if there are any free beds for them.  Didn't happen. 
Many, many people will be turned away, sent home, maybe with an oxygen bottle if they're lucky, to eventually die in the arms of their loved ones.  Didn't happen.  If you are over 30 or have an underlying condition, you're screwed. Not true.  People who need other types of medical care, like surgeries for cancer, etc. will be denied the care they need because the hospitals will be full of corona virus patients.  It will probably be 5-8 weeks before the number of new cases peaks and begins to decline.

Didn't happen.

Quote

 

We may experience severe disruptions in our economy, including the agriculture industry and transportation/distribution systems.  Even in normal times there is only about 3-7 days worth of food in the stores and the production/transportation pipeline. If the system gets disrupted, large cities run out of food in less than a week. Well, the shelves are already completely bare in most stores in our large cities.  There will probably be some severe food shortages.  Extended, mass closures of most schools, stores and businesses.  Major layoffs and unemployment.  For many of us, our credit reports will be the least of our worries.

 

There is no way to sugar-coat this.  I was telling one of the preppers in my office this week that it looks like I don't get to make fun of his lifestyle anymore.

Didn't happen.

Edited by cv91915

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