what is hegemony buying (and selling)?

[hdporter]

I don't think one could make this stuff up ... and I thought the Theranos story was a freak show!

[hegemony]

sold all my SBUX. the total value snuck up on me and I didn't want to be that exposed.

 

 

[hegemony]

bought F and VZ today. (yes I am boring)

[hdporter]

On 7/4/2022 at 4:35 PM, hdporter said:

 

I'll reserve a sound and friendly slap on the back for when our shares have rebounded twice as fast as the market at large (say, 5+ years from now ...)   < Hope never fades ... >

 

 

My investment in a small selection of individual stocks, into which I plunged upon the initial throes of the bear market, are still soundly underwater (surely they have SCUBA certification by now!)

 

However, I have one gut shot investment that's panned out and gives me a modicum of pleasure today:  I bought 200 shares of Netflix in May/Sept at an average price of $206.40 when the price sunk on reduced expectations for subscriber growth (and an actual loss in subscribers in 2nd quarter)..

 

I executed a sale of 100 of those shares for $306.80 today .  A modest win ...

 

The full holding of individual stocks (this is the first I've dabbled in such a significant share investment, otherwise sticking to mutual funds) has clawed back from a 43% loss at its worst, to 33% as of today.  But at least a ray of sunshine broke through the clouds today! 🤩

[hegemony]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:28 PM, hegemony said:

sold all my SBUX.

 

 

 

sold too soon, again. SAD!

[hdporter]

1 hour ago, hegemony said:

 

sold too soon, again. SAD!

 

No judgement here!  (I imagine that it would be rather difficult to have any conviction about the optimal point to exit that modest roller coaster.)

 

Say that you had instead held to today's close:  Would you be selling now?  Or would you give it another month or two to see how the current price upswing bears out?   (I'm looking for an answer ... we'll follow up to see how that pans out .)

[hegemony]

13 hours ago, hdporter said:

 

No judgement here!  (I imagine that it would be rather difficult to have any conviction about the optimal point to exit that modest roller coaster.)

 

Say that you had instead held to today's close:  Would you be selling now?  Or would you give it another month or two to see how the current price upswing bears out?   (I'm looking for an answer ... we'll follow up to see how that pans out .)

I often have sellers remorse when I should have more buyers remorse. this SBUX sale is just a reminder that timing the market is a fools game.

[TheVig]

6 hours ago, hegemony said:

I often have sellers remorse when I should have more buyers remorse. this SBUX sale is just a reminder that timing the market is a fools game.

 

At least you didn't sell it to cover crypto losses.

[hdporter]

6 hours ago, hegemony said:

I often have sellers remorse when I should have more buyers remorse. this SBUX sale is just a reminder that timing the market is a fools game.

 

If you're talking about moving money into and out of the market, absolutely!

 

But timing moves in and out of index funds to take advantage of well-timed individual share purchases, I'm inclined to disagree.  I do believe one can have insight into value that the greater market overlooks, due to the influence of events in the short term.

 

However, the jury is still out deliberating on that bit of speculation.  While I've done respectfully from the NTFX gut investment, I've been slammed harder by my investments into DocuSign and Fiverr that by any prior investment ($-80k and $-53k, respectively).  These are hardly "incidental" amounts when it comes to our portfolio.

 

Yet, I'm still hold confidence that these two issues will recovery, and may ultimately show decent profit.  The fundamentals of these two companies are strong ... the market just lost its appetite for more speculative business risk in the current environment.  Truth is, I'm getting a decent emotional payback from the suspense and drama ;).  I've never been more exposed to individual equity risk and it's a "novel" experience (thus far )

[centex]

My gas trust just paid out ~$34 per hundred shares for the month.  It was clearly a good month for natural gas royalties...

[Knight]

On 11/16/2022 at 7:38 AM, centex said:

My gas trust just paid out ~$34 per hundred shares for the month.  It was clearly a good month for natural gas royalties...

 

How does a gas trust work?

[hdporter]

On 11/14/2022 at 2:46 PM, hdporter said:

  I bought 200 shares of Netflix in May/Sept at an average price of $206.40 when the price sunk on reduced expectations for subscriber growth (and an actual loss in subscribers in 2nd quarter)..

 

I executed a sale of 100 of those shares for $306.80 today .  A modest win ...

 

NFLX closed Friday at $342.50.  Best gut purchase in some time.

 

But my clunker DocuSign and Fiverr are still swirling the bowl.  I have hope that Fiverr might see some recovery in the coming year, but I'm on the fence as to whether I should dump at least half the DOCU holding ... it doesn't seem like it has significant upside potential.

[hegemony]

VZ has been a dog. so much for a dividend strategy.

[IndyPoolPlayer]

On 11/2/2022 at 10:50 AM, hegemony said:

bought F and VZ today. (yes I am boring)

I'm in 100 shares of F now. I do like the dividend right now. I wouldn't touch VZ with a 39-and-a-half foot pole (same for T)

[hdporter]

On 1/29/2023 at 11:08 PM, IndyPoolPlayer said:

I'm in 100 shares of F now. I do like the dividend right now. I wouldn't touch VZ with a 39-and-a-half foot pole (same for T)

 

And (only my opinion and nothing else), I think Ford is ripe for a dividend cut.  I don't see any immediate prospect for earnings to climb anytime in the next 3-5 years.

 

Still, here's a "voice" that disagrees with me:

Why Ford is Cheap and Why It's a Bear Market Buy

 

(don't let the fact that this was written in Apr 2019 deter you from taking it to heart ...)

[hdporter]

On 1/23/2023 at 1:53 AM, hdporter said:

 

NFLX closed Friday at $342.50.  Best gut purchase in some time.

 

But my clunker DocuSign and Fiverr are still swirling the bowl.  I have hope that Fiverr might see some recovery in the coming year, but I'm on the fence as to whether I should dump at least half the DOCU holding ... it doesn't seem like it has significant upside potential.

 

I just sold 40 of my remaining 100 NFLX shares for $376.76, leaving me with 60 remaining.  (Again, I purchased 200 NFLX in May/Sep for $206.40 avg.)

Will target around $450 for the remaining 60.  That would produce total proceeds from my 200 share purchase of $72k ($40k invested last year)

.

[hdporter]

On 11/14/2022 at 2:46 PM, hdporter said:

However, I have one gut shot investment that's panned out and gives me a modicum of pleasure today:  I bought 200 shares of Netflix in May/Sept at an average price of $206.40 when the price sunk on reduced expectations for subscriber growth (and an actual loss in subscribers in 2nd quarter)..

 

I executed a sale of 100 of those shares for $306.80 today .  A modest win ...

 

The full holding of individual stocks (this is the first I've dabbled in such a significant share investment, otherwise sticking to mutual funds) has clawed back from a 43% loss at its worst, to 33% as of today.  But at least a ray of sunshine broke through the clouds today! 🤩

 

Well, I've been feeling cocky that last few weeks.  With the climb in the market and selective gains realized through share sales, I've pared the loss on my individual stock holding to 25%  (again, that holding represents about 15% of our total retirement investments, so is tolerable).  That may not seem like much of an advance, but when I'm feeling good about the remaining holdings (generally), it's been a relief to claw back almost 1/2 my holding loss (from it's lowest value).

 

-- I've sold a modest portion of my FVRR holding at a price above my last two purchases to capture some modest gains, in the event the stock goes south again.

 

-- I sold 60% of my NVDA shares, after strong indications that the company faces some headwinds in light of the China sanctions, realizing $35k on the sold shares.  (So, yeah, this one has been a winner to the tune of $55k in all, at the current price.)

 

-- Since my sale of 40% of my NFLX shares a month ago, the stock has rolled back 20%.  So, I'm feeling pretty good about that and "might" consider buying back in should the price drop another 15% or so.  (I have a lot of confidence in the company.)

 

-------------

 

After cringing for much of the last 12-15 months, I've been feeling vindicated in my gut shots.  First thing I turned to this am was a DOCU press release of their quarterly earnings.  Not only are earnings up over last year, but they exceeded analyst forecast!  That should be a shot in the arm .

 

DOCU (Docusign) is, as the name suggests, primary a company that specializes is remote document signing.  It got a big dose of success during the worst of the Covid closures, particularly where it came to such things as real estate/mortgage closings.   I decided to get in when there were first concerns about what happens "after" Covid, and as the price dropped (ultimately by 90%), I steadily bought more, increasing my stake to 5x the original purchase.

 

I "have" faith.  Earnings have improved quarter by quarter (unfortunately, margins aren't, which is concerning -- increasing sales should translate to increasing efficiencies).  And I think they have a solid position in their market, despite some stiffening competition.

 

Yet, when I updated my portfolio value this am, after glowing from the earnings release, DOCU was down by over 20%.  Apparently, failing to improve margins, despite workforce cuts in the last 6 mo, along with rumblings that Microsoft is looking to become a player, scared people stiff and some looked to dump, with reticent buyers. 

 

Maybe I'm now feeling more "exposed" than "vindicated" ...

 

I'm chuckling over my Jan 23 musings re DOCU:

 

On 1/23/2023 at 1:53 AM, hdporter said:

I'm on the fence as to whether I should dump at least half the DOCU holding ... it doesn't seem like it has significant upside potential.

 

Maybe I should listen to my gut a little more??

 

 

 

[hegemony]

bought FRC

[hegemony]

On 3/13/2023 at 3:50 PM, hegemony said:

bought FRC

 

lovely...FRC debt cut to junk

[hdporter]

On 3/15/2023 at 11:03 AM, hegemony said:

 

lovely...FRC debt cut to junk

 

I might argue that a considerable likelihood of this was priced into your share purchase.  Fortunately, the stock dipped significantly on the news this morning, but revised assessments of the implication seem to have recovered the stock price today.

 

I think your purchase is sound, but obviously with some risk.  With patience, you have a definite prospect of tripling your investment provided insolvency is avoided.  (I'm not following in your footsteps ... I'm currently saturated with investment in a couple of stocks that came with "some risk" that actually materialized.)

 

In your favor, I fully expect that the FDIC is actively reviewing insurance limits (currently at $250k per investor/per firm).  It's been 15 years since the last increase from $100k to $250k.  There's ample room for an increase to at least $500k.

 

I imagine some might push for the limit to be hiked to $1 mil.  Bank insurance came about as a means to put "bank runs" in the past, by giving savers confidence that they would be made whole in the event of a bank failure.  All things considered,, pushing the limit up to $1 mil is likely the type of "real" insurance that banks need in place to ensure that the bulk of deposits stay in place when rumors of instability start to float.

[hdporter]

5 hours ago, hdporter said:

Fortunately, the stock dipped significantly on the news this morning, but revised assessments of the implication seem to have recovered the stock price today.

 

Obviously I didn't check to see what happened in the after-hours trading ...  

 

However, it'll be interesting to see how the market will respond this morning to the reported deposit infusion by several large banks into FRB.  I would hope the opening price responds strongly (maybe edging near $2 by close today).

[hdporter]

sigh.  confused RFBK with RFC in quoting price ... 🤪

[hdporter]

Well, I sure underestimated the rate at which the "rats" will desert a ship upon rumors of "sinking".   FRC closed down over 30% today.

 

This isn't a case of holding a bunch of toxic investments, like the bank failures back in 2008.  While the bank has some evident vulnerabilities:

 

-- they highly mismatched assets/liabilities and, in investing in long-term maturities, didn't build in a safety net with "laddered" investments, including a reasonable amount invested in mid-term (2-year to 5-year) securities that would better weather a depositor "run", should one develop, and

 

--  their depositor base had a higher than average number of high balance accounts, leaving a greater portion of their assets uninsured by FDIC protection, and thus a great vulnerability to deposit migration in the face of risk.

 

These represent liquidity vulnerabilities that, once addressed, leaves the bank well positioned from a solvency perspective.  Of course, the market is reacting out of concern that the liquidity issues won't be permanently addressed and, instead, the bank's assets/deposits might be put up for sale, going for a bargain basement price that leaves shareholders with next to nothing.

 

The whole role of the FDIC is to protect sound banks from failure due to solvency issues.  There's every reason for the Fed to step in, as necessary, to see that the necessary solvency is put in place until the bank can put it's foundation on a more solid base.

[hdporter]

Hope there's adequate room in the water, Hege.  Wish I'd been freed up just a little earlier this afternoon, but I've put in an order for 1000 shares for market open on Monday.  (Hate to do this when we're headed out on a cruise Sunday ...)

 

Fingers very much crossed this will be a smooth sail ... (in reference to both ventures)

[hegemony]

On 3/17/2023 at 3:41 PM, hdporter said:

Hope there's adequate room in the water, Hege.  Wish I'd been freed up just a little earlier this afternoon, but I've put in an order for 1000 shares for market open on Monday.  (Hate to do this when we're headed out on a cruise Sunday ...)

 

Fingers very much crossed this will be a smooth sail ... (in reference to both ventures)

hope for my FRC after all?  Private Jet Data May Point To Regional Bank Survival Plan