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Are you ready to be depressed? You are never going to win the lottery and here's the proof

iH8cra

By iH8cra
in General Discussion

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The last post in this topic was posted 4150 days ago. 

 

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dansamy

dansamy

Posted
Posted

Yeah, but you can't win if you don't play.

 

Actually, I only occasionally play when I happen to be in a state that has a lottery. In other words every, 3-4 months I'll drop a $20 at some gas station in Florida.

dansamy

dansamy

Posted
Posted (edited)

Fool's tax.

It is. And I know that. I still will toss $20 in the wishing well 2-3 times a year. Like slots. You know that the house always wins. You still drop some change in them every now & again if you're on the casino floor.

Edited by dansamy
cashnocredit

cashnocredit

Posted
Posted

I don't play lotteries but I like to gamble at casinos. I also like randomness and the statistics of gaming. It's entertainment, not a way to win a bundle.

 

The house take on negative expectation games is far lower in casinos than lotteries so you have a reasonable chance of leaving after a day with more money than you went. OTOH, casino games have a much lower variance than the large lotteries. As a result, one is much more likely to win >$1,000,000 in a lottery than in a casino. Because of this the expected return of a long series of low (relatively-one is limited in letting winnings ride by table maxes), house margin bets, which is necessary for a really large win in a casino.

 

Casinos have a predictable income based on large numbers of gamblers so the variation in a casino's income is relatively low from month to month.

dansamy

dansamy

Posted
Posted

Exactly. It's entertainment. Although one can often have much greater time value of entertainment for the same dollars at the casino than on a lottery ticket. Both are still forms of entertainment.

Jega

Jega

Posted
Posted

I enjoy casinos. Only table games though

 

Mostly for the free drinks.

 

I don't expect to make money gambling at a casino, but I do then I came out with a story.

 

That's if I can remember it.

cashnocredit

cashnocredit

Posted
Posted (edited)

I had a statistics professor once tell me that you have better chances of being hit by lightening TWICE than winning the lotto.

:cry2:

 

It does happen though. My gf's friend won >20M in a lottery. At the time the payout was either cash value or annuity paid in equal amounts over 20 years. She chose the latter. No state tax on CA lottery wins but she had a sizeable federal tax bite. At the time she was a student but went on to become a teacher which is how my gf met her. They were friends almost 10 years before she learned it and when she did it was sort of a side comment. She had assumed all along my gf knew that about here. It just had never come up.

 

In CA lottery winners, by law, are named publicly, and this could have been discovered by just googling her name but we never had done that.

 

The odds of winning the lottery are not higher than the odds of getting struck by lightning twice. A couple near misses perhaps.

 

The odds of getting injured or killed by lighting are close to 1:1,000,000 per year. Since lightning strikes are independent events, the odds of getting injured in the first strike, which would be more than 1:1,000,000 because the person was alive to get hit a second time would be multiplied by 1,000,000 to calculate the odds of two strikes.

 

Therefore the odds of getting hit by lightning twice in a year are over 1:1,000,000,000,000. The odds if winning the powerball lottery from a single ticket are roughly 1:500,000,000.

 

Even if you consider lighting strikes over an entire lifetime and only play the lottery once you are still more likely to win the lottery but not by a large amount.

 

This is for the average person in the US. Some states get far more lightning than others. Fla, in particular gets a bunch. It's also home of the Powerball. Coincidence?

Edited by cashnocredit
Jega

Jega

Posted
Posted

(I don't drink, so I have NO idea how much, or little, booze costs. Is $200 a lot of alcohol?)

Depends on your taste in alcohol.

 

More most people $200 is more then a little.

cashnocredit

cashnocredit

Posted
Posted

(I don't drink, so I have NO idea how much, or little, booze costs. Is $200 a lot of alcohol?)

You're flat on the floor or dead with the typical hooch. Even with pricey 40 y/o Scotch, you'd get a buzz.

cashnocredit

cashnocredit

Posted
Posted

For those who are killed by their first lightning strike, the odds of being struck twice in a lifetime are zero.

:rofl:

 

Of course the stats are those that are killed or injured. A remarkably large number are in the latter category. But it still stand even more so that the stats. prof. was simply wrong.

  • 2 weeks later...
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radi8

radi8

Posted
  • Admin
Posted

The odds of getting injured or killed by lighting are close to 1:1,000,000 per year. Since lightning strikes are independent events, the odds of getting injured in the first strike, which would be more than 1:1,000,000 because the person was alive to get hit a second time would be multiplied by 1,000,000 to calculate the odds of two strikes.

 

I watched 4" copper ground strap vaporize and the corner blow off a cement pier during a lightning strike from an uncomfortably close distance at work. Also had my house hit about 10 years ago.

Probably screwed up my lottery odds forever, lol.

Tigz

Tigz

Posted
Posted

I had a statistics professor once tell me that you have better chances of being hit by lightening TWICE than winning the lotto.

:cry2:

Sooooooo.....

Buy your lotto ticket and tie yourself to the mast of a ship in the middle of a hurricane. Perhaps you might get lucky and win AND get struck twice by lightning.

VintageWillow

VintageWillow

Posted
Posted

 

I had a statistics professor once tell me that you have better chances of being hit by lightening TWICE than winning the lotto.

:cry2:

Sooooooo.....

Buy your lotto ticket and tie yourself to the mast of a ship in the middle of a hurricane. Perhaps you might get lucky and win AND get struck twice by lightning.

 

:rofl:

mk_378

mk_378

Posted
Posted (edited)

Read the link that cashnocredit posted. Its point that most people don't consider is that when the jackpot is record-high, a lot more tickets are sold, so the chance of your very unlikely win only taking a 1/2 or 1/3 split of the jackpot (which is always significant) becomes almost certain. Last week's jackpot ended up split 3 ways, as science predicted.

Edited by mk_378

The last post in this topic was posted 4150 days ago. 

 

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