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Gaze With Me Into The Credit Crystal Ball

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Shoes keep dropping ... Lehman ... Merrill ... AIG ... WaMu ... Morgan Stanley ... Halifax ... Bank of Ireland ... the Russian equity implosion ... Hong Kong down a lot too. Still too early to call a bottom.

 

What is heartening is that the Fed and the European central banking authorities have agreed on pumping another $180 billion back into the system. Had either tried to set monetary policy alone, the other would have been in a position to undermine the effort.

 

The cooperation bespeaks a level of understanding that the West stands or falls together.

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markets involve risk. markets go up and they go down. companies fail all the time...wait...is that a piece of the sky I see in my front yard...

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markets involve risk. markets go up and they go down. companies fail all the time...wait...is that a piece of the sky I see in my front yard...

 

I think you would agree that we are seeing in short succession a series of failures and restructurings of breathtaking scope and unprecedented magnitude.

 

We are very definitely in uncharted waters, yet at the same time there are echoes of the past in what is happening today that can guide our leaders if they draw the right lessons from them.

 

Clearly the regulators were not equal to the task, and equally clearly their impotence was the work of a political system addicted to special interest money and lobbyists' logrolling.

 

Right about now I'm wondering what sort of austerity plan the IMF will work up for us...

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Things will get a lot worse and then we'll simply redefine better, LOL! For example, people think $3.69/Gal is a deal. :angry:

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Unfortunately, it is a piece of the sky falling. Did you ever think you would see the day whrer the Treasury department reached out to the Chinese for a lifeline and begging, err...I mean giving its blessing to a takeover of a US bank. It was not too long ago the we laughed the Chinese out of the country when the expressed interest in buying Chevron or Unical.

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Unfortunately, it is a piece of the sky falling. Did you ever think you would see the day whrer the Treasury department reached out to the Chinese for a lifeline and begging, err...I mean giving its blessing to a takeover of a US bank. It was not too long ago the we laughed the Chinese out of the country when the expressed interest in buying Chevron or Unical.

 

The Chinese have been buying US debt for years. They own us.

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Unfortunately, it is a piece of the sky falling. Did you ever think you would see the day whrer the Treasury department reached out to the Chinese for a lifeline and begging, err...I mean giving its blessing to a takeover of a US bank. It was not too long ago the we laughed the Chinese out of the country when the expressed interest in buying Chevron or Unical.

 

The Chinese have been buying US debt for years. They own us.

:) not even close...

 

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Edited by hegemony

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It's all better now.... tell everyone their jobs are back Monday.

 

ok, I think Art Bell starts in a couple hours. :P

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markets involve risk. markets go up and they go down. companies fail all the time...wait...is that a piece of the sky I see in my front yard...

 

Ignorance is bliss. What we are experiencing now is unprecedented. Thy sky isn't falling, but this is not a simple case of cyclical economics of markets going up and down either.

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markets involve risk. markets go up and they go down. companies fail all the time...wait...is that a piece of the sky I see in my front yard...

 

Ignorance is bliss. What we are experiencing now is unprecedented. Thy sky isn't falling, but this is not a simple case of cyclical economics of markets going up and down either.

 

I am not ignoring the problems, but it is not the end of the world or even the U.S. economy as some seem to suggest (or wish).

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markets involve risk. markets go up and they go down. companies fail all the time...wait...is that a piece of the sky I see in my front yard...

 

Ignorance is bliss. What we are experiencing now is unprecedented. Thy sky isn't falling, but this is not a simple case of cyclical economics of markets going up and down either.

 

I am not ignoring the problems, but it is not the end of the world or even the U.S. economy as some seem to suggest (or wish).

 

Agreed.

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markets involve risk. markets go up and they go down. companies fail all the time...wait...is that a piece of the sky I see in my front yard...

 

Ignorance is bliss. What we are experiencing now is unprecedented. Thy sky isn't falling, but this is not a simple case of cyclical economics of markets going up and down either.

 

I am not ignoring the problems, but it is not the end of the world or even the U.S. economy as some seem to suggest (or wish).

 

Agreed.

:dntknw: and keep in mind 80% of my HHI is from someone who is in the flailing industry de jure.

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This "flailing industry du jure has been flailing since DU JUNE of last year. I think that qualifies as more than a bump in the road. Sure big names have disappeared from the street before, but, they never did it all at once. Market cycles are natural but, the only up ticks here have been the result of the not so invisible hand of unprecedented government intervention. I'm not saying the end is near for the world(although there are super-collider theories) but for alot of retirement and near retirement age people and 100's of thousands of former wall street paper millionaires, it has probably already come. Five years from now, the dust will probably have settled and the market will be on a trajectory to the moon again(it does always happen), the question will be how much of our country will we still own and what will America's place in the Hegemonic hierarchy of the world be? We have got to have more to offer the worls than just ou troops.(He said in a manner to spark an economic, not political, debate.)

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"Sure big names have disappeared from the street before, but, they never did it all at once."

 

Yes, this happened once before. It was called The Great Depression. It's a very interesting read, how it happened and what caused it. Eerily close to what is happening right now. Even though the government has yet to admit that we are and have been in a recession current events are heading in a direction that is far worse than the recession of a couple of decades ago. Most are ignorant of what's to come thinking it's gonna be bumpy for a few years. While many nations in the world scrambled to prevent and recover, others not involved were allowed to rise to power. An example of this noninvolvement last time was Germany and Japan. It's time for everyone to brush up on their history lessons.

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I'll get right on that after I spend the day trying to convince my clients that there will, eventually, be a tomorrow. Once again trying to steer clear of a political debate, I need to impress on you though the fact that what is occurring now could...possibly...maybe be blamed on us spending toooo much time trying to qeull the rise to power of other regimes instead of focusing on our own backyard. BTW...I am relatively certain that the Nazi rise to power was the result of an economic upheavel which was blamed on the Jews and also a massive lack of central regulation which allowed major German Corporations to finance said regime.

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...others not involved were allowed to rise to power. An example of this noninvolvement last time was Germany and Japan. It's time for everyone to brush up on their history lessons.

 

Germany and Japan were quite involved ... Kuhn, Loeb had been financing Japan's rise to power for decades (all the way back to the Russo-Japanese War that was used to precipitate the fall of the Tsar).

 

To the extent Japan had been noninvolved, their noninvolvement was the result of economic sanctions by the west to curtail their access to petroleum and scrap metal. They sought what had been denied them via aggressive imperial expansion.

 

Germany had experienced the hyperinflation that crushed the Weimar Republic because their debt to the WWI victors was so great.

 

Germany had cut itself off from the world economic system and tried to self-finance a comeback from within, along with an attempt to coalesce along ethnic lines, which created predictable tensions with Jewry inside the country whose legitimate business interests were in many cases being outright stolen and in other cases simply destroyed because of the belief they had prospered even in the face of severe economic headwinds because the transnational cooperative economic community they maintained with Jewy elsewhere was somehow illegitimate. This is a pattern that has repeated itself clear back to when historical records become mere fragments and it is not restricted to Jewry, rather any discrete and insular group perceived as doing better than their neighbors has invited wrath, particularly if they can be viewed as somehow prospering at others' expense. It is immaleable human nature--no society ever becomes more tolerant, they merely switch targets once in a while. Note that the Amish live unmolested in a discrete and insular manner only because they eschew virtually every trapping of material success.

 

We need a new term for the study of the big money's influence over the behaviors of the collections of nation-states over which they hold sway ... I nominate "Plutohistory" ... as in "The Plutohistorical Origins of Japanese Expansionism at the Dawn of the 20th Century".

 

The world remains divided among the economic interests of essentially nine to fourteen bloodlines, depending on how you count. What you read in the papers is a daily chronicle of their footprints, along with the occasional glimpse of a shoe or a pant leg ... you never get to see the real face.

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I'll get right on that after I spend the day trying to convince my clients that there will, eventually, be a tomorrow. Once again trying to steer clear of a political debate, I need to impress on you though the fact that what is occurring now could...possibly...maybe be blamed on us spending toooo much time trying to qeull the rise to power of other regimes instead of focusing on our own backyard. BTW...I am relatively certain that the Nazi rise to power was the result of an economic upheavel which was blamed on the Jews and also a massive lack of central regulation which allowed major German Corporations to finance said regime.

 

wow...if I said something like that this thread would be locked in 5 seconds...

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Unfortunately, it is a piece of the sky falling. Did you ever think you would see the day whrer the Treasury department reached out to the Chinese for a lifeline and begging, err...I mean giving its blessing to a takeover of a US bank. It was not too long ago the we laughed the Chinese out of the country when the expressed interest in buying Chevron or Unical.

 

The Chinese have been buying US debt for years. They own us.

:rolleyes: not even close...

 

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

 

Other than Treasury debt, the Chinese do apparently have a huge amount of dollars due to trade imbalances. If they felt like dropping the dollar for Euros, that would be another Trillion dollar hit.

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Unfortunately, it is a piece of the sky falling. Did you ever think you would see the day whrer the Treasury department reached out to the Chinese for a lifeline and begging, err...I mean giving its blessing to a takeover of a US bank. It was not too long ago the we laughed the Chinese out of the country when the expressed interest in buying Chevron or Unical.

 

The Chinese have been buying US debt for years. They own us.

<_< not even close...

 

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

 

Other than Treasury debt, the Chinese do apparently have a huge amount of dollars due to trade imbalances. If they felt like dropping the dollar for Euros, that would be another Trillion dollar hit.

 

 

if you held a few hundred billion in dollars...wouldn't the last thing you want is a weaker dollar?

 

 

why isn't anyone worried about the huge percentage increase in our debt held by Great Britain???

 

it is always too easy to blame others for our behavior.

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I am worried about that. I am worried that there was a time when we were the nation that bought debt, now it is ours that is being bought.

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They're now saying that foreign-owned banks will get bailout help too. On the surface it seems dumb and perhaps unnecessarily altruistic. But my own wanderings in court dockets have indicated that Deutsche Bank seems to have had to do a lot of foreclosing ... it may be that the anguished phone calls that got this done were coming from Berlin.

 

Even if our banking system were not directly affected by DB's troubles, the real estate held by them could be dumped on the market in such a way as to cost existing homeowners billions in equity and perhaps trigger another wave of defaults ... so it makes sense to help them too.

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