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Gaze With Me Into The Credit Crystal Ball

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1 hour ago, hegemony said:

would love to see your thoughts 10 years on...

It's certainly been interesting to see how the Fed and financial sector dealt with things. I remember the Treasury Sec. talking about staring into the abyss.

 

I'm not sure how it could have been handled any better but the future may have some lessons. Things always look clearer in retrospect. I lot of the recovery from the Great Recession is coordination with the EU and other developed countries. Pretty much everyone did the same thing and it has so far worked.

 

The funny thing now is that any significant increase in long term interest rates can't be allowed. The interest payments would blow up the already large deficit. But since most all developed countries are in the same boat, I don't see any obvious triggering event that would result in either a deflationary spiral or rapidly increasing inflation.

 

Home underwriting remains relatively tight but competitive forces are gradually loosening standards. Still way better than the '00s though more problematic given prices have peaked pretty high with evidence of decline in many sectors. Especially >$1M homes which are getting hit by the 2017 tax changes.

 

My main concern now for the US in particular is loss of reserve currency status. But we are well entrenched and if it occurs it will take some time.  But if/when it does it could have particularly unpleasant consequences for us v the rest of the developed World.

 

My metric for the global "fear index", which is the ratio of Au/Pt price is rather high but I think this is largely from global foreign policy concerns though a portion is from decrease in Pt usage which is more a commodity. But this fear index is more transient than long term.

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On 7/31/2019 at 3:29 PM, hdporter said:

Brexit (when and if it happens) is a monkey wrench unto itself.

It's definitely happening now. Question now is will the UK leave by blowing the EU a kiss and a wave or will the UK leave by showing the EU the middle finger?

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On 8/3/2019 at 11:11 AM, hegemony said:

Warren Buffett is lying in wait. Berkshire Hathaway has $122 billion in cash

 

worked out well for BH during the great recession with the BOA preferred stock dealio. smart move to wait back with cash ready for this gilded economy to implode.

The timing of this post was impeccable. All aboard the S&H Express!

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21 minutes ago, hegemony said:

"Despite retailers banking on acceleration in the fourth-quarter from holiday sales, Wells Fargo said fundamental trends have deteriorated.'

 

After they did something illegal, not with the client's consent, I want to know who will trust them again.

 

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6 minutes ago, MP80 said:

"Despite retailers banking on acceleration in the fourth-quarter from holiday sales, Wells Fargo said fundamental trends have deteriorated.'

 

After they did something illegal, not with the client's consent, I want to know who will trust them again.

 

They were subpar BEFORE all of that shizz.  Now I would never make them my main banking institution.  Not saying I would never have one of their cards however, should it have a large enough SOB and decent rewards structure.

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24 minutes ago, CTSoxFan said:

They were subpar BEFORE all of that shizz.  Now I would never make them my main banking institution.  Not saying I would never have one of their cards however, should it have a large enough SOB and decent rewards structure.

We cut off their tie before they were caught. There is no need to apply for their bad products (low limit) don't care what they offer! Keep in mind that if you open an account with them, you will be at risk. I mean any account.

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Let's here it for robotics and awkward situations.

 

A neighbor who's hours have been cut back. saw me and others walking though his employers facilities on Sunday. This morning their FB page is full of ridicule concerning robots eliminating hours and jobs. 

 

I hope they go easy on the Christmas shopping, and 22' rims for the car, because Feb 2020 is not gonna be pleasant.

 

Moving forward I need to keep an eye out for vandalism to my vehicles and other property.

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