Gaze With Me Into The Credit Crystal Ball

[mec]

"People have stopped paying their mobile-home loans, and it's a warning sign for the economy"

 

https://amp.businessinsider.com/mobile-home-loan-delinquencies-are-a-warning-sign-for-the-economy-2018-4

Edited April 4, 2018 by mec

[IndyPoolPlayer]

Must not be as much money in meth as there once was....

[centex]

The home is mobile...the vehicles...not so much.

[hegemony]

BIGLY FROTHY https://www.economist.com/business/2018/06/23/yacht-sharing-startups-vie-to-rule-the-waves

[hegemony]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-days-away-from-setting-a-bearish-record-2018-06-28

The Dow and S&P 500 are 10 trading days away from their longest corrections since 1984

[hegemony]

BOOM!!!

[centex]

1 hour ago, hegemony said:

BOOM!!!

Still plenty of money out there if you know what you are doing...

[hegemony]

1 hour ago, centex said:

Still plenty of money out there if you know what you are doing...

 

make money up

make money down

[IndyPoolPlayer]

3 hours ago, hegemony said:

BOOM!!!

Time to get into treasuries we're in for a wild ride until November

[hegemony]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45841541

 

always be closing...

[cv91915]

Is it time to buy crypto?

[cashnocredit]

2 hours ago, cv91915 said:

Is it time to buy crypto?

I prefer sea shells. She sells them by the sea shore.

 

[hegemony]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-27/why-do-investors-hate-everything-maybe-paranoia-jpmorgan-says?srnd=fixed-income

 

Quote

Only during the 1970s stagflation period and the global financial crisis have so many asset classes had negative returns in a year. The latter may have a lot to do with why it’s happening again.

 

[hegemony]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-24/unstrung-stocks-pushed-to-brink-of-bear-market-on-christmas-eve

 

Stocks Pushed to the Brink of a Bear Market on Christmas Eve

[hegemony]

Warning: 14 of 19 bear market signals triggered, Bank of America says

 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/investing/dow-jones-stocks-bear-market/index.html

[IndyPoolPlayer]

Its a continuation of the previous bear market and recession. We just had an 18 month post-inaugural crack euphoria.

 

The markets and financiers know we're in for two more years of Washington chaos with all colors digging in their heels and drawing their lines in the proverbial sand, combined with states juggling multi-billion dollar pension liabilities such as Illinois than can only be resolved with significant tax increases across the board.

[IndyPoolPlayer]

Wow. The financial markets seem to have some sort of psychotropic ailment. Up 1000 yesterday, down 600 today until the last hour when just like the Colts pulled a win out of their a$$es in the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter.

[hegemony]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-average-adjustable-rate-mortgage-is-nearly-700000-heres-what-that-tells-us-2019-02-04

 

The average adjustable-rate mortgage is nearly $700,000. Here’s what that tells us

[hegemony]

this is surprising, I wonder if it is driven by oil or some seasonality? Expect a push by some for a much weaker dollar

 

US Trade Deficit Hits Record High

http://fortune.com/2019/03/06/us-trade-deficit-record-high/

[hegemony]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-slump-7-in-april-after-reaching-the-best-level-of-the-cycle-2019-05-23?mod=mw_theo_homepage

 

New-home sales slump 7% in April after reaching the best level of the cycle

 

frothy

 

[cv91915]

19 hours ago, hegemony said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-slump-7-in-april-after-reaching-the-best-level-of-the-cycle-2019-05-23?mod=mw_theo_homepage

 

New-home sales slump 7% in April after reaching the best level of the cycle

 

frothy

 

And homebuilder confidence is up 3 points in May.    

 

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/05/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-posts-solid-gain-in-may 

[cashnocredit]

Typical froth near the end of a business cycle.

 

Question is, what will be the trigger for a decline, if any? China tariffs? Increased cost of consumer goods? There could be conflicting drives for lower/higher interest rates. Hard to predict? We live in interesting times.

[hegemony]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/jp-morgan-slashes-second-quarter-gdp-forecast-to-just-1percent.html

 

JP Morgan slashes second-quarter GDP forecast to just 1%

[Occam]

On 5/24/2019 at 3:50 AM, cv91915 said:

And homebuilder confidence is up 3 points in May.    

 

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/05/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-posts-solid-gain-in-may 

Typical. Probably because "this time is different" again.  

[TheVig]

Regardless of what the trigger is, people will turn up here, just like 2009 with the same ol stories we've heard and experienced before.

 

When these folks do turn up, maybe we should point them to threads like this. If anything it will show them, their story and excuses are not unique.